West has no reason to see red in Russia's rise

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By Fu Mengzi (China Daily)
Updated: 2008-09-12 07:47

The recent armed conflict between Russia and Georgia became the new center of attention in the international political arena. After the smoke cleared on the battlefield, Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and established diplomatic ties with its southern neighbor, where Russian military bases may soon appear.

Because Western powers supported Georgia during the conflict, the bilateral feud became a conflict between Russia and the US-led Western alliance and its impact has been fully shown in US-European Union and US-Russian relations.

It is impossible to misread the message from the US, EU and NATO that they "support Georgia's territorial integrity". Britain, France and a few other countries even proposed sanctions against Russia.

Russia is naturally a focal issue in foreign affairs debates during the US presidential election process. Republican presidential nominee John McCain said publicly he wanted Russia kicked out of the Group of Eight (G8) international power club. The narrow Black Sea bears testimony to standoffs between Russian Navy warships and US fleet carrying aid for Georgia.

Russia on its part soon delivered some combination punches, which had Western countries even more worried. Before Western countries raised their "big stick" of sanctions, Russia announced from September 2 it would suspend natural gas supply to EU nations for "pipeline maintenance" for 30 hours and withdraw from some of the agreements it has signed with other countries for its accession into the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Up to 19 American companies were shut out of the Russian market because "they ignored Russian experts' suggestions on export quarantine."

Russia has also suspended negotiations with NATO, while Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made it clear in his deliberation on the country's "five principles" in foreign affairs that "a unipolar world is unacceptable"- throwing a blunt "No" at the US-led world power setup.

A regional issue is now being elevated to a high-level political rivalry of global proportions. Does this signal a change is on the way in the world order or international system? Russian weekly magazine Power says in an article published on August 25 that the Russia-Georgia conflict "has changed the international order and Russia's status in it". US magazine Newsweek, meanwhile, suggests that Russia is trying to adapt to the ending of the era of Western common security mechanism.

Since the end of Cold War, be it the Gulf War, Kosovo conflict or the war in Iraq, people have made a habit of assessing its political impact every time an armed conflict erupted and someone always believed the clash signaled the birth of a new world order. It is quite natural for similar predictions to emerge after the Russia-Georgia conflict broke out. The thing is the main character in this conflict is not America but Russia, which is making a very emphatic comeback at the moment.

Will Russia back down on the way to joining the West-dominated world order or become more self-determined and stubborn? The West was quite certain about it a while back, but probably not so sure these days about whether Russia will move on or become even more "outrageous".

The Russia-Georgia conflict is most certainly no good news to the US-Russia ties or EU-Russia relations, as most members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) should have seen the warning sign by now. As to whether this may lead to a "new Cold War" between Russia and the West, it is probably too early to answer the question right now.

Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in his reply to a CNN reporter on August 28 that Russia does not wish for any dispute to happen or fight any other country and wishes the US would stop making other nations its enemies. In a certain sense the world still has enough reasons to hope that all sides involved in the conflict will resolve their differences properly.

The Russia-Georgia conflict itself aside, the fact that Russia stood up to the West on this issue signifies the end of the days in the post-Cold War era when Russia had to let the Western powers do whatever they wanted is finally over. As a major power on the rise again, Russia has found its inner energy pumped up by the rising oil price in recent years, as its economy kept growing at a fast pace, filling the nation with overflowing confidence and the will to be the rising power it really is.

Also in recent years NATO has been expanding eastward like there is no tomorrow, pressing ever closer to the psychological bottom line Russia hoped to keep, until the US poured fuel on glowing tinder by forcing Poland to allow the deployment of a US missile defense system in its territory; not to mention the sense of being completely surrounded by hostile forces that "color revolutions" in some of the former Soviet republics in Central Asia have generated.

At a time when nations of the world are becoming more inter-dependent than ever, the development of security-related affairs is regrettably pitting them against one another. Western powers' deep-rooted misgivings about and guardedness against other rising powers remains a big obstacle for building mutual confidence among "major league" players.

Russia has always been eager to join the WTO, which can be seen as one of the key symbols of being part of the international system dominated by the West. However, after more than a decade of negotiations (application in 1993 and beginning negotiations the following year), the membership remains as illusive as ever.

The status as one of the G8 nations is but a political pacifier given by the Western powers and there have been calls for Russia's removal from the "rich countries' club" from the start. This is definitely not a positive way to recognize Russia's political development, real strength or place in the world.

More over, Putin also believes that G8 today is less than qualified (to do what it is trying) and the normal development of the world economy is simply unimaginable without including China and India or listening to what they have to say (about global economy).

Russia chose its own unique way to rise again as a major power. Blessed with an enormous territory and rich resources, which give it an economic advantage that is impossible to miss and make it a lot less dependent on foreign supply. The value of Russia-US bilateral trade is not a big figure, while its cooperation with the EU remains "not so extensive".

That means Russia has few economic vulnerabilities for other countries to take advantage of and it will no doubt retaliate further efforts by the West to "weaken and squeeze" it now that it has got its real strength back.

Some people say today's world is showing certain new characteristics. Influential players now have the opportunity to take hold of advantageous positions in a world that is beginning to transform. But, it is not quite accurate to say that Russia is trying to change the current international system as that the era when one superpower or the Western alliance dominates that system is changing.

The author is assistant president of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations

(China Daily 09/12/2008 page9)