Government and Policy
Taiwan vote could impact Straits ties
By Xing Zhigang (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-12-05 09:08
Voters in Taiwan will elect local officials on Saturday in the first test of the island's mainland-friendly leader Ma Ying-jeou a year-and-a-half after he came to power.
The election result could have an impact on the cross-Straits policy of Ma's ruling Kuomintang (KMT) and on upcoming cross-Straits talks that will be held in Taichung, experts said on Friday.
If the KMT holds its current majority or gains seats, Ma's already strong position will be cemented, adding momentum to his efforts to broker stronger ties with the mainland through trade pacts.
"Certainly, if they do well, that would please Beijing," Lin Chong-pin, strategic studies professor at Tamkang University in Taipei, was quoted as saying by Reuters on Friday.
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If the pro-independence opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) adds to the three seats it holds out of the 17 at stake in the elections, the result might indicate that voters are upset about such issues as the perceived slow response to the deadly typhoon in August and to the lifting of a ban on US beef imports.
"I know our competitor, the DPP, has always hoped to raise this vote to the level of a central election and teach us a lesson," Ma told a news conference on Friday.
The DPP supports the island's formal independence from the mainland and upset Beijing when it held the "presidency" from 2000 to 2008.
Campaigning dominated by roadside posters, blaring trucks and non-stop TV ads reached a crescendo on Friday.
Mindful of the mainland, the island government this week announced new rules that forbid mainland tourists from attending political rallies or appearing on TV talk shows, local media said.
About 38 percent of Taiwan's electorate can vote, with elections in major cities and counties set for next year. Winning mayoral and magistrate candidates will take office on Dec 20. The terms will last four years.
"If the KMT lost one or two seats to the DPP in this election, I am afraid it will opt to take a more conservative stand in its cross-Straits policy," said Chen Xiancai, a senior researcher at the Taiwan Studies Center in Xiamen University.
Ma and the KMT have been pushing for closer ties with the mainland, including the resumption of semi-official cross-Straits talks, the establishment of a direct postal service and more direct links for shipping and air travel.
Both the KMT and the DPP have tried hard to sharpen their distinct images among voters, with the KMT advocating better cross-Straits ties and a stronger economy and the DPP casting itself as the defender of Taiwan that is seeking formal independence for the island, Chen Xiancai said.
The election on Saturday will give both parties an opportunity to see if their popularity is growing, he added.
Li Jiaquan, a senior researcher with the Institute of Taiwan studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, agreed with Chen.
"Saturday's election will be the skirmish before next year's election for municipality heads and the 'presidential election' in 2012 and the KMT will adjust cross-Straits policies if they fail to win enough support this time, including the cross-Straits policy," he told China Daily.
