By Dong Zhixin (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2007-11-22 14:02

China is unlikely to surpass Germany in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year to become the world's third largest economy, a senior statistician said Wednesday.

In 2006, China's GDP stood at US$2.7 trillion, compared with Germany's $2.86 trillion.

The Chinese economy is expected to grow 11.5 percent this year, while Germany's growth is estimated to be less than three percent, which prompted analysts to predict China would replace Germany as the No. 3 economy in the world after the United States and Japan.

However, Zheng Jingping, chief engineer of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), dampened the optimism at a financial forum in Beijing, according to the China Securities Journal.

In addition to economic growth, changes in the value of the yuan and the euro, and the price movements within the two countries should also be taken into consideration when calculating dollar-denominated GDP, Zheng said.

"The main reason is that the euro is appreciating relatively faster [than the yuan]," Zheng was quoted as saying. "Taking various factors into consideration, China's GDP can't surpass Germany this year."

So far this year, the euro has appreciated 11 percent against the greenback, far more than the yuan's five percent growth against the US dollar.

On Wednesday, the People's Bank of China set the yuan central parity rate against the euro at 10.9916, marking a depreciation of seven percent against the European single currency since the end of 2006.