China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), may not adjust interest rate before April 2010, and further monetary policy shift would mainly focus on the deposit reserve ratio, a senior analyst predicted in an interview with Xinhuanet.com.
"The PBOC may adjust the deposit reserve ratio at the beginning of 2010, on condition that China's economy recovers at the fastest pace," Dong Xian'an, chief macro-economy analyst with the Industrial Securities, told Xinhuanet.
"It is possible that in the fourth quarter of this year, the PBOC may resume loan quota controls for 2010," said Dong.
Excess deposit reserve ratio of China's financial institutes fell to a history low of 1.55 percent in the second quarter, according to a PBOC report earlier this month. The low ratio makes banks inclined to lending instead of depositing at the central bank, so the PBOC would prefer to raise the excess deposit reserve ratio to signal policy change, Dong said.
But as the deposit reserve ratio has been raised to 17.5 percent as of June, according to a previous report from the China Business News, there would be limited room for upward adjustment on this, he said.
Dong forecast China's broad money supply to grow around 28 percent this year, though bank lending may slow in the second half, and he expects the PBOC's "moderately loose" monetary policy to remain unchanged within the year.