Tariffs on the minds of midterm voters

In this midterm election, tariffs have done something trade policy rarely manages — they have become a kitchen-table issue.

A September Cato Institute/Morning Consult survey of 4,150 registered voters found that 75 percent said tariffs will be important to their vote in these midterm elections.

A poll released by the Pew Research Center in October showed that the economy ranks as the No 1 issue in the upcoming midterm for 84 percent of Americans, 11 points ahead of the second most important issue of concern for the future of democracy. Those views are shared across party affiliation.

A CBS-YouGov House battleground tracker in October showed that when people think about the economy, 91 percent of them think about prices.

"The cost of living now is unheard of," said Jorge Luis, a Houston handyman in his 40s. "It takes so much more money to feed and clothe myself and my family. I am hardworking. I never imagined that my life would get harder, not better. A good American life is out of my reach."

Mary Li, a housewife, said she's dismayed to watch the prices going up and up and up at the grocery stores.

"I paid $3.99 for a five-pound bag of Calrose rice before the pandemic hit us in 2020. The inflation has been going up non-stop since. Now it's $7.99 for the same brand. It's more than doubled!" Li said. "Noodles too. A five-pound box of noodles of my favorite brand went from $3.99 to $8.99. We don't make enough to keep up with these crazy price rises."

Li said she'd switch to cheaper brands when her wallet feels really pinched. "That makes me a little less happy," she said. "I used to be able to buy what I like in grocery shopping. I can no longer take them for granted."

Many Americans blamed tariffs as a major reason for the current high prices. An October poll by the Council on Foreign Affairs and Morning Consult found that 75 percent of Americans are concerned about affording food and groceries, and of those concerned, 83 percent say tariffs increase the price of these goods.

Another October poll released by The Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 65 percent of Americans blame the Trump administration's policies — particularly tariffs and the initiation of the Iran war — for the high cost of living.

People are not wrong to blame tariffs on price hikes. A new study by Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David Weinstein that was published in October at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that for every percentage point increase in average tariffs, consumer goods prices increase by about a quarter of a percent after one year.

The study showed that in 2025, the average tariff rates for Chinese goods was about 30.6 percent. That means products imported from China would be about 7.65 percent more expensive.

Overall, the study found that by February this year, tariffs had contributed 2.9 percentage points to goods price inflation.

As a result, tariffs have been unpopular with many voters. The CBS-YouGov battleground tracker in September found that potential voters preferred a congressional candidate who opposed tariffs by 26 points.

The poll by the Council on Foreign Affairs and Morning Consult also found that while 42 percent of Americans are not okay with importing goods essential to national security from China, 43 percent of them also think that current tariffs on China—around 23.2 percent—are too high.

Only 21 percent of respondents said the next president should keep all the current tariffs on China. About 60 percent of Americans believe that if the US increases tariffs on all imports from China in the future, it will hurt the consumers "a lot" (37 percent) or "some" (23 percent).