AI weather models boost disaster preparedness

Meteorological experts stressed on Tuesday that accurate and timely weather forecasting is essential to disaster prevention, public safety and people's livelihoods as extreme weather events become increasingly challenging to predict.

They made the remarks at a news conference held by the State Council Information Office, highlighting advances in forecasting technology and the work of front-line meteorological staff.

Niu Zeyi, an assistant researcher at the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration, said typhoons have become increasingly unusual in recent years, making them harder to forecast. However, advances in artificial intelligence weather models offer new possibilities.

His team has combined AI models with traditional numerical weather prediction to develop a hybrid model that performs well in forecasting typhoon tracks and intensity.

"During this year's forecasting for Typhoon Bavi, our model made an accurate call 108 hours in advance. Only when forecasts are accurate can manpower and resources be deployed where they are needed most during a disaster," Niu said.

Zhang Fanghua, chief forecaster at the National Meteorological Center, said the center collects real-time atmospheric data through Fengyun meteorological satellites, weather radar and automatic ground observation stations nationwide. The data, including temperature, air pressure, wind speed and precipitation, are analyzed using mathematical equations and high-performance computers.

Zhao Hujiong, director of the meteorological bureau of Daishan county in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, said growing up in a fishing family had shaped his understanding of the importance of weather forecasting.

"Daishan is one of China's key fishing counties. Local people live off the sea, and the weather has a direct bearing on the livelihood and safety of every fishing household," he said.

"My father once told me that weather forecasts can save lives, and that meteorological work is a matter of conscience. I have always kept those words close to my heart."

In Qinghai province, Zhao Guorong, director of the meteorological observatory of Haibei Tibetan autonomous prefecture, said the observatory has 12 staff members, with an average age of under 35.

"Braving wind, snow and bitter cold, we have put down roots on the plateau, shouldering the responsibility and mission of keeping our community safe and helping it thrive," she said.

Cai Yiyou, deputy director of the meteorological bureau of Xiangcheng district in Zhangzhou, Fujian province, said the city, known for its fish, rice, flowers and fruit, is frequently hit by typhoons, rainstorms and severe convective storms. Weather events exceeding historical extremes are no longer unusual.

"In such weather, it is not enough to simply say 'it's going to rain'. We need to tell people where the rain will fall and when the risks will be greatest," Cai said.