Low-altitude economy poised for growth

The low-altitude economy, also referred to as advanced air mobility, is the future of aviation beyond traditional airliners.

The low-altitude aviation market is projected to touch $245 billion by 2040, with China and the United States together accounting for 50 percent of the share.

The most visible form of low-altitude aviation is drone delivery, already in use in several countries for last-mile deliveries of food, medicines and other small items.

However, low-altitude aviation includes many other applications, or "use cases", as well.

One immediate use case is tourism. Today, helicopter services offer aerial tours of cities, the countryside and parks to tourists. But helicopters are noisy and expensive, limiting their availability and customer base.

This is where electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicles come in. These innovative aircraft can take off and land like helicopters while cruising like airplanes and are powered by batteries or hybrid systems. Their much-reduced noise footprint and lower operating costs could open the door to aerial tourism and introduce a new generation to breathtaking views from 500 meters above.

Another promising application involves bigger versions of the delivery drones the world is already familiar with. These cargo eVTOL drones are designed to transport larger quantities of goods from regional warehouses to city centers and remote areas.

What currently takes days to arrive after ordering online could be delivered within hours, allowing consumers to access a wide range of goods regardless of their location. Logistics companies such as SF Express in China and UPS in the US are eagerly awaiting the deployment of such aircraft.

Special missions, such as emergency medical services, humanitarian aid and policing, will likely see early adoption of eVTOLs. These aircraft will complement and eventually replace helicopters, allowing governments to provide not only medical help or security functions, but also flying generators that supply electricity to areas where natural calamities have caused disruption.

This capability assumes greater importance given the penetration of new energy vehicles that rely on the electrical grid.

By the late 2030s, probably the largest deployment of such vehicles will be as air taxis. Air taxis are eVTOLs that transport passengers within a city to avoid traffic and congestion.

While new energy vehicles have helped reduce the pollution that previously affected many cities worldwide, street congestion is inevitable because it is a byproduct of urbanization.

It is estimated that by 2030 roughly 60 percent of the population will live in cities, some of them with up to 40 million residents. Air taxis offer a solution, enabling people to travel without adding to the congestion and potentially even reducing it.

Using an air taxi will be as simple as booking an Uber or a Didi. An app will allow users to select their destination and will even provide the first — and last-mile connectivity to a vertiport — a compact urban airport similar to a helipad. By 2040, we anticipate air taxis will make up over 60 percent of the overall low-altitude market, with China and the US the two biggest markets, followed by Europe at third position.

Lastly, it's important to mention regional air mobility. While air taxis cover the transportation needs of people within a city, regional air mobility transports people between relatively close cities.

This may not be a journey from Beijing to Shanghai, but more like Guangzhou to Hong Kong or Zhuhai.

In China, the availability of high-speed rail will limit the development of regional air mobility to destinations currently not covered by trains. But in other parts of the world, it could offer an alternative to expensive highways or train lines.

The author is the founder and managing partner of SMG Consulting in the United States.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

If you have a specific expertise, or would like to share your thought about our stories, then send us your writings at opinion@chinadaily.com.cn, and comment@chinadaily.com.cn.