Security drives smooth transition to renewable energy

The global energy crisis, triggered by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Gulf, is profoundly affecting energy transition plans. Beyond the immediate turmoil, today's shortages and higher prices of oil and gas are likely to accelerate the shift to renewables.

Renewables are localized, secure and decentralized sources of energy. They don't depend on large production plants and complex global logistics, which makes them less vulnerable to accidents and armed conflicts.

This has already been demonstrated in Europe in recent years. The countries least affected by gas and oil shortages and high prices were those with a higher share of renewables in their energy mix and electricity consumption. In the first quarter of 2026, renewable energy sources surpassed 45 percent of the European Union's energy generation, led by Austria, Sweden, Denmark, Portugal and Spain (60 percent to 90 percent).

The same pattern is visible in China, which is leading in electrification powered by renewables. The global shift to renewables is accelerating, despite the United States' campaign against carbon-reduction regulations and climate action.

Notably, the recent acceleration has been driven largely by security and economic factors stemming from the conflicts in Ukraine and the Gulf, rather than by climate commitments alone.

In June, the US leader had proclaimed that "oil prices will drop like a rock". Three months later, shortages and price hikes have become the norm.

These higher prices have not benefited producers due to increased shipping and insurance costs, along with extortion fees imposed by multiple parties. This dilemma, combined with climate considerations, has strengthened interest in locally controlled renewables and smaller, decentralized plants.

Once the chaos of wars and the global disruptions subside, the lessons must inform long-term green economy planning rather than a mere reaction to calamities.

A green economy will remain a slogan unless it is rooted in sound resource management and respect for nature's limits. One common misconception, often promoted by global consulting firms active in Arab countries, is that technology alone can deliver sustainability without altering consumption patterns. This mindset produced extravagant projects such as irrigated golf courses or artificial ski slopes in deserts, which squander scarce freshwater resources. Given extreme water scarcity, water use — including recycled wastewater — should be prioritized.

The recent conflicts and climate extremes have exposed the vulnerabilities of nuclear power as a secure energy source. Nuclear power plants, which are typically large and centralized, are potential targets in conflict zones, threatening power outages and deadly radiation leaks.

This is a major threat in the Ukraine conflict, as well as in the US-Israel-Iran conflict, where nuclear facilities were destroyed in Iran, a missile landed near the Dimona nuclear site in Israel, and the United Arab Emirates' Barakah nuclear energy plant was nearly hit by a drone.

In Europe, major nuclear plants had to shut down or sharply reduce output as water levels in rivers dropped to historic lows, eliminating the only source for cooling.

In France, the electricity output of several reactors was curtailed due to regulations on hot-water discharge, and jellyfish, attracted by the warm water, blocked intake systems.

Beyond oil pollution from war or accidents, extreme heat could pose a major threat to desalination plants as well as to existing and planned nuclear power plants in the Arab region.

The outcomes of bilateral cooperation initiatives, such as the Free Trade Agreement between the European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council, must be closely monitored for their impact on accelerating the transition to a green economy. Despite the conflicts in the Gulf, FTA negotiations have been revived, beginning with the EU-UAE track.

These talks had stalled in 2008 because of irreconcilable differences on several issues, including environmental measures. The chances of reaching an agreement are now much higher, as major developments have occurred on both sides: the EU approach has become more realistic, and the Gulf countries, mainly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have integrated sustainability into their development plans.

Saudi Arabia has put into action its ambitious Vision 2030, while the UAE has adopted its Green Agenda to build a competitive green economy.

Taxes on fossil-fuel imports have long been a contentious issue in negotiations between the GCC and the EU. In the early 1990s, I presented a paper suggesting that parties not categorically oppose a "carbon tax", but instead negotiate a middle ground. Proceeds of this tax, which was intended to reduce the carbon emissions largely responsible for climate change, could be shared between producers and consumers.

Oil producers, most of which are developing countries, need funding to diversify their economies beyond fossil fuels. They also need technology transfer and joint investments to achieve this goal. While the parties were not ready to endorse such an approach at the time, they now stand much better chances, as they share more common ground.

Saudi Arabia has strongly supported this path by starting major partnerships for the production of green hydrogen, adhering to the highest norms.

Besides the EU, China is an obvious global partner for Arab countries in greening their economies. While the US is moving toward the production and use of more fossil fuels, regardless of science and ethical norms, China has led the transition in the opposite direction, boosting the renewables industries in solar and wind energy, while also making quantum leaps in batteries and electric vehicles.

Successful transition to a green economy requires the right choice of partners. This is the only guarantee of a sustainable future.

The author is the secretary-general of the Arab Forum for Environment & Development and editor-in-chief of Al-Bia Wal-Tanmia magazine.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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