Railway opens a new gateway

I grew up in the At-Bashy district of Kyrgyzstan, and 50 years later, I am witnessing a remarkable transformation of the landscape I once knew.

Today, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is rapidly advancing across the Torugart Pass. More than 300 kilometers of the railway will run through Kyrgyzstan before extending into Uzbekistan and beyond.

The railway's path through Torugart is especially symbolic.

For my generation, the Torugart border crossing was for decades a symbol of division, isolation and military confrontation.

Today, the same place has become the gateway to economic cooperation. Infrastructure not only alters trade routes but can also transform relationships between nations and peoples.

Conservative estimates suggest that once operational, the railway will transport 5-8 million metric tons of freight annually in its initial phase, rising to 13-15 million tons over time.

This could potentially surpass the current freight volume of Kyrgyzstan's railways, which was about 10.5 million tons in 2025. Direct transit revenues are estimated at $200 million to $300 million a year.

However, transit fees are just one of the many economic benefits of the railway. The construction phase itself is already generating demand: thousands of people are employed on the project, and local contractors and suppliers are engaged, which is particularly beneficial for Kyrgyzstan's Naryn and Jalal-Abad regions.

New logistics and service hubs, warehouses and terminals could emerge around the stations, while international investors could find opportunities to establish assembly and processing facilities.

The railway could also provide fresh impetus to the extraction and processing of mineral resources, reduce raw material transportation costs and encourage the development of higher value-added industries.

Faster and cheaper transportation would enhance the competitiveness of Kyrgyz agricultural products, textiles, construction materials and light-industry goods in China, Uzbekistan, the Middle East and beyond. The development of stations and settlements along the route would also drive demand for hotels, gas stations, retail outlets and other services.

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov has emphasized the strategic importance of the project. He said that the railway would transform Kyrgyzstan from a landlocked to a transit country.

Comparing the future transit revenues with the stable income from the Kumtor gold mine, Japarov termed the railway a potential "second Kumtor".

When construction began, the president said the project was not merely a transport corridor, but a strategic bridge between East and West, promoting trade, industry and tourism while connecting the northern and southern parts of the country.

Indeed, the route's geography adds to its strategic importance. Kyrgyzstan will gain access to the vast markets of China and Central Asia and, through onward corridors, to Iran, the Gulf states, Turkiye and Europe.

Yet physical rails are only half the equation. Equally important is soft infrastructure: streamlined border and customs procedures, a "single-window" system, electronic document exchange, digitalized permits and compatible transport standards.

The three countries must integrate their customs and railway information systems and establish a unified digital transport document.

Creating joint logistics and industrial zones along the Kyrgyz-Chinese and Kyrgyz-Uzbek borders would be a promising step. Only by doing so can transit be transformed into manufacturing and value-added activities that benefit Kyrgyzstan.

At the same time, we must avoid inflated expectations. Transit alone does not guarantee prosperity. If Kyrgyzstan relies mainly on transit fees from the freight, the economic benefits will fall short of their potential. The country must prepare domestic logistics companies and skilled professionals, develop service businesses and create conditions for Kyrgyz companies to participate in supply chains.

The project also presents challenges, including financing burdens, technical complexities of construction in mountainous and seismically active terrain, ensuring meaningful participation by local contractors and businesses, and addressing environmental and regional concerns.

Coordination through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Eurasian Economic Union and bilateral mechanisms could help harmonize rules and connect the corridor with the Caspian region, Turkiye and the Middle East.

In this sense, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway could reshape Kyrgyzstan's economic landscape for decades. But the railway alone will not determine the outcome.

Its success should be measured not only by the freight volume or transit fees, but by its ability to create jobs, strengthen domestic production, support communities along the route and leave a greater share of value added within Kyrgyzstan.

The author is a professor at Kyrgyz National University. He was the rector of the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Kyrgyz Republic and governor of Naryn Region.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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