Tackling drought from parched to prepared

Throughout history, climatic fluctuations have been a constant companion of human civilization.

Early human civilizations developed along the fertile banks of rivers such as the Nile in Egypt, the Tigris and Euphrates in Mesopotamia, the Indus in the Indian subcontinent, and China's Yellow and Yangtze rivers.

There was abundant water for drinking and irrigation, and the rivers were also main arteries for transportation.

However, living close to the rivers also made these civilizations vulnerable to the threat of floods, while regions away from water sources faced the risk of droughts. The Indus civilization declined due to a prolonged drought, while in China, several dynasties lost power because the rulers were unable to protect the population from serious floods and droughts. Flood and drought management therefore became key issues for all dynasties.

As nations grew wealthier and technology advanced, policymakers across the world gained more alternatives to tackle extreme weather events. But floods have received more attention from scientists and policymakers than droughts because their impact is more visible and dramatic.

This is paradoxical, because floods can last for days, while droughts can extend for several months, years and even decades.

Moreover, prolonged droughts often inflict significantly greater human suffering than do heavy floods.

Droughts are now seen as multi-sector crises because they not only affect agriculture and food security but also reduce energy production, disrupt transportation systems, increase wildfire risks, and cause widespread economic losses that persist long after the drought itself has ended.

The severe drought in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022 exemplifies how droughts can evolve into a widespread socio-economic crisis when water shortage affects multiple sectors simultaneously. Prolonged high temperatures and extremely low precipitation led to reduced river inflows, declining reservoir levels and widespread deficits in soil moisture.

The impact extended beyond agriculture, disrupting urban and rural water supplies, hydropower generation, inland navigation and ecosystem health.

Unlike floods, which have clear beginnings and ends, droughts develop through an intricate interplay among precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, and human activities.

Advances in data analytics, artificial intelligence, remote sensing, and numerical modeling are improving drought prediction capabilities, but it is not yet possible to forecast when a drought may start, how severe it may become and how long it may persist.

Recognizing these challenges, institutions such as the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research are spearheading efforts to improve drought monitoring, forecasting and early-warning systems. Although significant knowledge gaps remain, advances in forecasting science are expected to provide policymakers and water managers more time to prepare for droughts and reduce their impact.

The good news is that China is better equipped to handle droughts than ever before. Substantial investments in water infrastructure, improved water management practices, expanded grain storage capacity, and more effective drought preparedness measures have bolstered the country's resilience.

As a result, although droughts will continue to occur and pose serious multisectoral challenges, their social, economic, and environmental consequences can be mitigated more effectively than in the past.

In addition, China's transport connectivity is now among the best in the world. Grain reserves can be moved quickly from one part of the country to drought-hit regions. This was not so easy just two decades ago.

However, future drought management must shift from reactive crisis response to proactive risk management. Historically, governments across the world have focused on emergency measures only after the impact of drought becomes visible.

A more effective approach involves drought preparedness, continuous monitoring, early-warning systems, risk assessment and institutional coordination to mitigate severe impact before it occurs. Such approaches can reduce vulnerability and increase societal resilience to droughts.

China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) proposes new strategies for managing natural disasters, including droughts, and emphasizes proactive resilience. This will require a deeper understanding of droughts, extensive monitoring and a thorough analysis of their impact.

As climate change increases the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events, research by institutions such as the IWHR will be crucial. These efforts aim to enhance our understanding of drought processes, strengthen forecasting capabilities, and develop more effective early-warning systems.

While droughts will remain an inevitable aspect of climatic variability, advances in science and risk management should enable societies to anticipate them earlier and respond more effectively. Such progress would benefit not only China but also drought-prone regions across the world.

Asit K. Biswas is the director of Water Management International Pte Ltd in Singapore; Qu Yanping is a professor at the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research; Yang Xiaojing is a senior engineer in the same institute.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.