Baseless baselines: Bursting Manila's make‑believe bubble

The Philippines has recently gone beyond drawing so-called territorial sea baselines around China's Huangyan Island. Last week, it deposited "official charts" with the UN Secretariat and submitted oral presentations to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf regarding an extended continental shelf claim in the South China Sea off the so-called "West Palawan region".

In response, China's Foreign Ministry issued a stern warning and, over the weekend, the PLA Southern Theater Command and the China Coast Guard conducted coordinated operations around Huangyan Island. These moves carry multiple layers of deterrence.

First, they put on full display China's resolve and capability to defend its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights. Working in tandem with the Foreign Ministry's statement, they deliver an on‑the‑ground counterpunch to Manila's legal provocations, media stunts, and efforts to drag in extra‑regional players. They are also meant to deter any next‑step intrusions that the Philippines might stage using "fishing boats", official vessels, or official aircraft.

Should the Philippines decide to provoke after drawing its self‑declared baselines, the message is clear: the China Coast Guard and the military will not be gentle, and such law‑enforcement and military activities will become routine. At the same time, these actions serve as a warning against external military meddling in the South China Sea.

For Japan, Beijing is signaling high vigilance against the revival of a new‑style militarism through Japan‑Philippines military cooperation, and that it has sufficient countermeasures at hand. For the United States, the signal is that it should not encourage, but rather restrain its treaty ally the Philippines, so as to avoid a miscalculation between China and the US at sea.

Around the same time, China also issued the Management Measures for the Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve, which foreign media have read as a tightening of the rules. Their significance for the relevant parties is sharp.

The measures make the protection of Huangyan Island more precise, routine, science‑based, and more operational, backed by institutional and regulatory guarantees. They put in place a full chain of administrative and judicial jurisdictions over Philippine intrusions into the reserve and other illegal activities, and over the environmental damage those activities cause — covering pre‑incident deterrence, mid‑course control, and post‑incident accountability and punishment.

Depending on the nature and consequences of the violations, administrative, or even criminal penalties, can be applied. Where necessary, international judicial avenues may be used to hold the Philippines accountable for damaging the island's ecological environment, creating favorable conditions for China to deploy foreign‑related legal instruments and hit back against Philippine infringements in the next stage.

Behind these calibrated responses lies a simple fact: China has long seen this coming and was ready. The Chinese statement directly calls out three connected unlawful acts: the Philippines' so‑called baseline drawing, which violates China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights; Manila's ongoing farce of hyping the illegal arbitral award in bilateral and multilateral diplomatic settings around 12 July this year; and the recent dispatch of Philippine vessels into the territorial waters off Huangyan Island in a calculated effort to create friction at sea, escalate tensions, and chip away at the peace and stability of the South China Sea.

The Philippines' move to draw baselines around China's Huangyan Island and submit related charts — and now to deposit them with the UN and push a continental shelf claim — is just a new coat of paint on its illegal territorial claim: clumsy in execution and malicious in intent.

If any country could simply draw a few lines on a map and claim another's territory, the world would be in chaos. Manila is using these steps to prop up and dramatize the arbitral award, staging a public show on the international stage at its 10th anniversary, while piggybacking on the ripple effects of recent joint statements by certain countries on that same award.

The fingerprints of the United States, Japan, and others are all over this. They have supplied the Philippines with the maritime information‑technology support and guarantees needed to announce these so‑called baselines — capabilities Manila simply does not have on its own. But, no matter how it is packaged, unlawful acts do not create lawful rights.

The Philippines' antics won't diminish China's legal rights. What history has shown time and again is that after each Philippine provocation in the South China Sea, China's measures to protect its rights and counteractions draw its circle of control ever tighter, leaving the Philippines less room to maneuver.

The Philippines' claim to Huangyan Island is unlawful and its drawing of territorial sea baselines is equally illegal and void.

First, Manila has shifted its justifications over time, at one point invoking "geographical proximity" and at another claiming that the island falls within its exclusive economic zone. But, geographic proximity has never been a valid legal basis under international law for seizing another country's territory, nor is it a recognized mode of territorial acquisition.

The core principle that "the land dominates the sea" exposes the fallacy of arguing that Huangyan Island sits inside the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. In reality, the exclusive economic zones generated by China's Huangyan Island and by the Philippine archipelago overlap.

Second, the arbitral tribunal in the South China Sea arbitration exceeded its jurisdiction and issued an unlawful award that is null and void. By brandishing that award to prop up its illegal territorial claims, the Philippines made it clear that its real goal was never to clarify legal entitlements at sea, but to hijack the dispute‑settlement mechanism for territorial expansion — thereby confirming the award's fundamental illegality. The tribunal, in effect, served as the Philippines' accomplice.

Third, the Philippines' Maritime Zones Act tries to place China's Huangyan Island and certain islands, reefs, shoals, and sands of the South China Sea under Philippine jurisdiction, while treating the illegal award as a source of its maritime rights.

This is an infringement of China's territorial sovereignty and a violation of international law, including the UN Charter. Domestic legislation cannot overwrite the principles and rules of international law; a state cannot invoke its own internal law to excuse non‑performance of international obligations or dodge international responsibility.

The Foreign Ministry's statement, the joint exercises, and coast guard operations around Huangyan Island — together with the new management measures for the nature reserve — leave no doubt about China's ironclad resolve to defend its territorial sovereignty and national security, to preserve regional peace and stability, and to uphold an international order rooted in international law. That resolve is built on solid ground: China's claims are in line with international law, its position stands firmly on the side of justice, and its actions are open and above board.

Meanwhile, China's hard and soft power for safeguarding rights and maintaining stability — and its ability to wield that power — continues to grow. Routine law‑enforcement and military presence, backed by an expanding arsenal of legal and administrative tools, means any further infringement or provocation by the Philippines will only invite more decisive and precise countermeasures.

The make‑believe bubble of the Philippines' illegal territorial claims will be steadily squeezed, until it finally and completely bursts.

The author is the director of the Center for International and Regional Studies, National Institute for South China Sea Studies.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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