Enhancing 'reliable substitution' capability of clean energy

China will aim to boost its annual renewable energy consumption to around 1.8 billion metric tons of standard coal equivalent by 2030 under its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) for Renewable Energy Development, according to the country's top economic and energy regulators.

Jointly released by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, the blueprint marks a strategic turn toward high-quality expansion and reliable fossil-fuel substitution, establishing the official framework for China's green energy evolution through the end of the decade.

Under the plan, China's total installed renewable power capacity is projected to reach about 3.5 billion kilowatts by 2030, generating roughly 6 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually.

Wind and solar power will remain the principal engines of this growth, with combined installed capacity expected to surpass 2.8 billion kW. This will account for over 50 percent of the nation's total installed power capacity and supply more than 30 percent of its annual electricity output.

Reaching the 1.8-billion-ton benchmark marks a fundamental shift in China's energy matrix, balancing carbon peak targets with long-term energy security, industry analysts said.

"Over the next five years, renewables must move from rapid growth to reliable grid support," said Ye Xiaoning, a senior engineer at the State Grid Energy Research Institute. He noted that the plan's first-ever "reliable substitution target" — aiming for an 8 percent average firm capacity ratio by 2030 — directly addresses weather dependency by aligning generation volume with dispatch flexibility.

Ye added that leveraging nonelectric applications like green hydrogen and heat will help resolve grid integration bottlenecks, pushing renewable energy beyond the power grid and deeper into the broader economy.

Renewable energy refers to energy that can be continuously replenished and regenerated through natural processes within a relatively short period.

It includes hydropower, wind power, solar energy, biomass energy and geothermal energy. New energy refers to all renewable energy sources excluding hydropower, according to the document.

A core priority of the new roadmap is enhancing the "reliable substitution" capability of clean energy — ensuring intermittent wind and solar resources can dependably support the national grid during peak load hours.

The plan mandates that the average firm capacity ratio for combined wind and solar installations equipped with energy storage reach 8 percent nationwide by 2030.

To support grid balance, China will add more than 300 million kW of reliable peak-shaving renewable capacity over the five-year period through multi-energy integration, pumped-storage hydro and demand-side virtual power plant deployment.

Beyond power generation, the plan outlines significant breakthroughs in non-electric renewable applications. Non-electric utilization is set to grow 1.5-fold compared with 2025 levels, replacing approximately 150 million tons of standard coal equivalent annually by 2030.

This non-electric expansion will focus on scaling up green hydrogen, ammonia and synthetic methanol for heavy industry and transport, while expanding geothermal and biomass energy for urban and rural heating.

To foster new quality productive forces within the sector, policymakers are prioritizing breakthroughs in key equipment and technologies. Research and industrial application will focus on perovskite tandem solar cells, deep-sea floating wind platforms, thousand-meter head hydro turbines, and initial testing for space-based solar power systems, it said.