Rethinking energy security in a changing world

Energy security is being reshaped in a rapidly changing global landscape, but the policy conversation has yet to fully adjust. As geopolitical tensions intensify and traditional fuel supply chains face disruption, governments are rethinking how energy systems are built, powered and protected. Yet, the approach remains anchored in outdated assumptions about fuel supply, overlooking the resilience of the systems that deliver energy.

Nowhere is this more evident than in heating and cooling, which account for roughly half of global energy consumption.

More than 80 percent of this demand is met by fossil-fuel based energy. For many countries, this implies continued dependence on imported fuels to meet essential needs, from maintaining habitable cities to sustaining industrial production.

Despite this, policy and investment remain heavily concentrated on electricity generation, leaving thermal systems — the largest source of energy usage — fragmented, underdeveloped and exposed to fuel price volatility. Addressing this imbalance requires a shift in perspective, from securing fuel supply to strengthening the infrastructure that delivers energy.

Geothermal energy offers a fundamentally different model of energy security, based on infrastructure rather than fuel.

In practical terms, this means replacing recurring fuel imports with long-life domestic assets that stabilize energy costs over time, reduce exposure to commodity volatility and anchor critical infrastructure in reliable, local energy resources.

Unlike fossil-based systems, geothermal requires no ongoing fuel supply, eliminating exposure to transport disruptions and import dependence. With one of the smallest land footprints of any renewable, it can also be deployed within dense urban environments, integrating seamlessly into existing buildings, districts and infrastructure systems.

Yet a key barrier to wider adoption is the persistent misconception that geothermal is limited to volcanic regions. In reality, low — to medium-temperature geothermal resources suitable for heating and cooling can be deployed in nearly every geography. Advances in drilling and subsurface engineering are further expanding geothermal's potential at greater depths.

International experience illustrates what is possible, with Iceland providing a well-established case.

Following the oil shocks of the 1970s, the country invested heavily in geothermal infrastructure to reduce dependence on imported fuels. Today, around 90 percent of Icelandic homes are heated with geothermal energy, contributing to both energy independence and long-term price stability.

Over many decades, Iceland has developed deep expertise in geothermal resource development, engineering, and system integration, creating a foundation that has informed projects well beyond its borders.

China is a more recent and large-scale example of how this expertise can be applied in practice.

Through Sinopec Green Energy — a joint venture between Sinopec Star and Arctic Green Energy — Iceland's technical expertise combines with China's industrial scale and execution capability to enable rapid deployment of geothermal district heating systems across northern China.

In China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), energy self-sufficiency and system stability are central priorities. As part of this broader strategy, the country has accelerated the development of geothermal systems, particularly in regions historically reliant on coal.

Today, geothermal systems developed through Sinopec Green Energy serve more than 120 million square meters across more than 70 cities, benefiting millions of people. This expansion is reducing emissions while strengthening domestic energy security through stable, locally sourced energy systems.

The impact extends beyond energy supply. In cities historically reliant on coal-based heating, the shift to geothermal energy has improved local air quality, supporting efforts to build cleaner, healthier urban environments.

As the global energy system evolves, maintaining reliability is becoming more complex.

Wind and solar are indispensable to decarbonization, but their variability requires complementary resources to ensure stability. Geothermal plays a critical role by offering continuous, weather-independent thermal energy, particularly in sectors where demand cannot be curtailed. In this sense, geothermal complements rather than competes with other renewables.

Policy frameworks around the world have not fully adapted to this reality. Energy strategies continue to prioritize electricity, while heating and cooling remain underdeveloped in both planning and financing. Closing this gap will require integrating geothermal into urban energy planning, expanding district heating and cooling networks, and adopting financing models that treat geothermal as long-term infrastructure rather than short-term energy supply.

Together, the experiences of Iceland and China offer a broader lesson: energy security improves when countries invest in domestic, infrastructure-based systems rather than relying on imported fuels.

In a rapidly changing global landscape, long-term energy security will depend less on access to fuel and more on the resilience of energy systems.

Countries that succeed will be those that invest in infrastructure capable of delivering stable, reliable energy over decades.

And beneath our feet lies one of the most powerful and overlooked foundations of that future.

The author is the founder and chairman of Arctic Green Energy and vice chairman of Sinopec Green Energy.

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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