NATO faces fresh threats from Washington

WASHINGTON/BRUSSELS/PARIS — The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has in recent years survived existential challenges ranging from the conflict in Ukraine to multiple bouts of pressure from United States President Donald Trump, who has questioned its core mission and threatened to seize Greenland.

But it is the US-Israeli war with Iran, thousands of miles from Europe, that has nearly broken the 76-year-old bloc and threatens to leave it in its weakest state since its creation, say analysts and diplomats.

Trump and his officials have expressed frustration over what they see as NATO's unwillingness to help the United States in a time of need, including by not directly assisting with the Strait of Hormuz and by restricting US use of some airfields and airspace. US officials have declared NATO cannot be a "one-way street".

Trump, enraged that European countries have declined to send their navies to open up the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping following the start of the war on Feb 28, has declared he is considering withdrawing from the alliance.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said: "President Trump has made his disappointment with NATO and other allies clear, and as the President emphasized, 'the United States will remember'."

Trump's latest comments follow other signs of an increasingly unsteady alliance. Those include his stepped-up threats in January to wrest Greenland away from Denmark and recent moves by the US that Europeans see as particularly accommodating toward Russia, which NATO defines as its principal security threat.

As the US-Israeli war in Iran continues, combined with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the EU and NATO states are facing an energy shortage.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico on Saturday called on the European Union to resume dialogue with Russia and lift sanctions on Russian energy supplies, after holding a phone call with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni wrapped up her Gulf visit on Saturday. She said it is aimed at solidarity and protecting Italy's energy and security interest. Meloni is the first EU and NATO leader to travel to the Gulf since the US-Israel war on Iran began.

No going back

Analysts and diplomats say the result is that the alliance, created in the Cold War that has long served as the basic fabric of European security, is fraying and the mutual defense agreement at its core is no longer taken as a given.

"This is the worst place (NATO) has been since it was founded," said Max Bergmann, a former State Department official. "It's really hard to think of anything that even comes close."

"NATO remains necessary, but we must be capable of thinking of NATO without the Americans," said General Francois Lecointre, who served as France's armed forces chief from 2017 to 2021.

"Whether it should even continue to be called NATO — North Atlantic Treaty Organization — is a valid question."

Legally, Trump may lack the authority to withdraw from NATO. Under a law passed in 2023, a US president cannot exit the alliance without the consent of two-thirds of the US Senate.

But analysts say that, as commander-in-chief, Trump can decide whether the US military will defend NATO members.

Trump has challenged NATO before, including during his first term from 2017 to 2021, when he also considered withdrawing from the alliance.

Even if Trump and the Europeans find a way to stay together in NATO, diplomats, analysts and officials say, the trans-Atlantic alliance that has been central to the global order since World War II may never be the same.

"I do think we're turning the page of 80 years of working together," said Julianne Smith, former US Permanent Representative to NATO.

"I don't think it means the end of the trans-Atlantic relationship, but we're on the cusp of something that's going to have a different look and feel to it."

Agencies Via Xinhua