The math of war is turning against the US

On March 10, Donald Trump softened his tone, saying talks with Iran were possible. However, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has already ruled out talks, calling past negotiations with Washington a "bitter experience". The battlefield dynamics have flipped. Why? Iran may not win militarily — but it may win the math of war.

The cost asymmetry is staggering.
In the first 36 hours of the war:
• The US and Israel reportedly fired 3,000+ precision munitions and interceptor missiles.
• Estimated cost: $5–6 billion
Meanwhile:
• Iran launches Shahed-type drones.
• Cost per drone: $20,000–$50,000
To shoot them down:
• Patriot interceptors: $3–4 million each
• THAAD interceptors: $12+ million each
That means every interception becomes a losing economic trade.

Then there's the Strait of Hormuz.
As tensions rise, markets are reacting fast:
• Oil prices briefly exceeded $100 per barrel.
• Global energy markets are already rattled.
And this matters politically in the US:
A spike in gasoline prices often translates directly into falling support for the ruling party.

From Trump's shifting rhetoric to Wright's deleted post, one thing is clear: a war increasingly seen as serving Israel's interests may be too costly for the United States to sustain.