Demographics drive Israel's shift to right

The results of the recent Israeli parliamentary election mark a tilt to the right in Israeli politics resulting from the country's shift in demographics, according to a United States foreign policy expert.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the former longtime prime minister, returned to power with a parliamentary majority, propelled by a right-wing coalition that included ultranationalist and religious parties.

"Netanyahu's win was not unexpected. It reflects a turn to the right in Israeli politics and a really big change in the coalition," said Jack Midgley, the principal of global consultancy Midgley & Co and an adjunct associate professor in security studies at Georgetown University.

"This time the coalition is much smaller, and it includes some really conservative politicians," Midgley told China Daily.

Outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, a centrist with a rare coalition of conservative, liberal and Arab politicians, lost in the vote held on Nov 1. The vote was one of five elections in Israel in approximately three-and-a-half years.

Netanyahu's right-wing Likud bloc and similar parties have gained 64 of the 120 seats in the 25th Knesset of Israel. He accepted on Nov 13 the formal mandate from the president to form a government, and the process could take several weeks and some negotiations.

According to the Jerusalem Post, more than 70 percent of citizens voted — the second-highest percentage since 2015.

Midgley said that the results of the election suggested that "public opinion has moved to the right", and the changing population is one of the reasons. "The Arab population is growing faster than the Jewish population, and this has raised concerns," he said.

Among the Jewish population, the policies of United States President Joe Biden's administration in favor of a deal with Iran "are unpopular in Israel," Midgley said, "and Netanyahu has been consistently against making a deal with Iran".

"So, all of these forces are moving Israel to the right and Israeli politics to the right, and that's what brings Netanyahu back," he added.

Midgley said the new government would not likely deal with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by "the idea of separate states", also called "the two-state solution", which envisions an independent state of Palestine alongside the state of Israel.

"It's clear from the makeup of the coalition that there will not be any discussion of a Palestinian state," he said.

Midgley said that the Biden administration has consistently favored a two-state solution, but Israel is unlikely to support any deal with the Iranians under current conditions.

He also said that Israel and the US are interested in improving Israel's relationship with Saudi Arabia for "good economic reasons and national security reasons".

"I think Netanyahu may be quietly but steadily moving in the direction of Saudi Arabia. That is an evolution that the Biden administration favors," said Midgley.

"Both countries have that in common. That will not change; (but) the range of options is becoming a little narrower as a right-wing government emerges in Israel," he added.

He said that the Israelis need to manage the Palestinian question, and other great powers, including the US, also must manage the large-scale movement of people. "There are also very big chances that nothing will be done, and we could have a demographic crisis in the years ahead.

"This is a global problem, and it's going to have to be worked out systematically and globally. Currently, there aren't a lot of measures in place or a lot of measures even being talked about to address these huge population movements," he said.