Draghi exit casts long shadow on Italy poll

Departing Prime Minister Mario Draghi threatens to cast a long shadow over the campaign for Italy's general election on Sept 25, despite having been unseated from power.

The former head of the European Central Bank, who came from a nonpolitical background, was appointed prime minister at the head of a national unity government 18 months ago and charged with helping Italy's already delicate economy through the aftermath of the pandemic.

Draghi, having succeeded in holding together a coalition that included factions such as the Five Star Movement and Matteo Salvini's League party, faced a vote of confidence on July 20, which he won. But the two parties along with the Forza Italia party boycotted the vote, which undermined his authority and led to his resignation.

Sharp divisions have been observed between those who supported Draghi and those who contributed to his resignation.

"It's a very clear dividing line between those who have kind of killed the king－and those who tried to save the king," Daniele Albertazzi, a politics professor at the University of Surrey, told the Financial Times. "There is a good chunk of public opinion that thought the Draghi government was OK and don't like what happened. The big question is, is this going to shift a lot of votes?"

Polling suggests Giorgia Meloni, leader of the Brothers of Italy party, is on course to be the new prime minister at the head of a right-wing coalition, which would have major implications far beyond Italy.

Meloni is a close ally of Salvini, who has been open in his admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, once wearing a shirt with his face on it in the European Parliament.

"If a new Italian government is more sympathetic to Russia, it would be a concern to Italy's allies," Margaret MacMillan, emeritus professor of international history at the University of Oxford, told the Politico news site.

"Italy could be placing itself in the same pro-Russian camp …and become a concern for Germany and France."

Political instability

However, political instability is hardly new in Italy. The next government will be its 70th since the end of World War II.

Giovanni Orsina, head of the school of government at Luiss University in Rome, told the BBC that public opinion was changeable, so post-election haggling and deal-making could be prolonged.

"Italian politics has become very fluid; voters change their minds very easily. Parties are very weak as well, and there's a big deal of fragmentation," he said.

"The memory of how the Draghi government fell will be part of voters' choices," said Lorenzo Pregliasco from political polling company YouTrend. "The dynamics that led to his resignation are very much political and they can shape the election campaign in the coming weeks."