TOURISM SECTOR SETS OUT ON ROAD TO RECOVERY

The future of the travel and tourism industry after COVID-19 is hard to predict.

The pandemic has had a mostly negative impact on the sector, bringing travel and tourism to almost a standstill and leading to millions of jobs lost.

Data from the United Nations World Travel Organization shows that global destinations recorded 147 million fewer international arrivals over the first five months of this year compared with the same period last year, and 460 million fewer than the pre-pandemic year of 2019.

According to the World Travel and Tourism Council, the sector suffered a loss of almost $4.5 trillion last year, with its contribution to global GDP dropping 49 percent compared with 2019.

More than 62 million jobs were lost, leaving just 272 million people employed across the sector.

"Although most countries have seen an improvement in international travel, we are still far from pre-pandemic figures. The mobility restrictions and requirements for travel keep crippling the travel and tourism sector," a council spokesperson said.

"International COVID certificates, such as the EU Digital COVID Certificate, are a step in the right direction, but there needs to be international consensus regarding the implementation of such 'vaccine passports'."

As vaccination programs continue to gain pace around the world and with travel restrictions easing, some in the industry are seeing a slow rebound for the sector, especially through domestic tourism.

"Domestic tourism has certainly improved across the United Kingdom over the summer. In the UK, restrictions were only eased at the start of the summer for domestic tourists, so we have seen the benefit of summer holidays and the release of demand," said Martine Ainsworth-Wells, director of Ainsworth and Wells, an international marketing, communications and brand management consultancy. She noted that inbound and outbound tourism figures remain low due to ongoing restrictions.

"Firstly, there are some people who simply do not want to travel because they are worried about the risk of catching COVID-19. Secondly, there are people who cannot or do not wish to pay for the mandatory pre- and post-departure tests for travel. Thirdly, people are worried that they may get 'trapped' if the 'COVID status' of the destination changes whilst they are there or if they test positive for COVID-19 and have to isolate," she said.

Gayle Allard, professor of economic environment and country analysis at IE University, Madrid, said: "Tourism in Europe is experiencing another difficult year thanks to the spread of new variants of COVID-19. Some European economies are not only the world's most visited countries but are also heavily dependent on tourism. It is close to 15 percent of Spain's GDP, for instance. This is bad news for European economies.

"However, although data are not yet available, there are signs that domestic tourism is making up for some of the loss of foreign travelers. Europeans whose savings rose during quarantine are traveling more widely in their home countries this summer."

'Traffic light' confusion

The UK government's "traffic light" system for foreign travel had also come under criticism from the industry, with many observers saying it did more harm than good.

Earlier this year, the WTTC said, "This system is causing confusion among travelers, and it bases risk on the country and not on the individual traveler, which is unfair as whole nations do not have COVID."

The council had also called on the government to scrap the "ineffective system" and allow fully vaccinated Britons to travel freely, with unvaccinated travelers able to travel via fast and affordable testing.

ABTA, the UK's largest travel association representing travel agents and tour operators, said that while the UK had been leading the way in the vaccine rollout, other countries in Europe have also implemented successful vaccination drives and now allow people who are "double jabbed" to travel freely without restrictions.

The association called on the UK government to capitalize on its vaccine rollout and make it easier for people who are fully vaccinated to travel without taking polymerase chain reaction tests.

Data from ABTA found that bookings for summer holidays overseas are down 83 percent compared with 2019.

Despite the rollout of the vaccine program, ABTA said almost half of travel companies saw no increase in bookings compared with last year and 58 percent of bookings with departure dates in July or August had to be postponed or canceled.

"For the limited destinations you can travel to, some of them are very important to us such as Spain and Greece, but then Spain was put on the amber list and travelers had to self-isolate on return. Changes like that really damage public confidence in travel," said ABTA spokesman Sean Tipton.

ABTA called on the UK government to do more to help the sector cope with the crisis.

The UK government has since made changes to the "traffic light" system. They took effect on Monday.

The "traffic light" system has been scrapped and replaced by a red list only. Also, fully vaccinated travelers coming from non-red list countries will no longer need to undertake pre-departure tests, while Day 2 polymerase chain reaction tests will be replaced with cheaper lateral flow tests from the end of this month.

The announcement on Sept 17 was welcomed by the industry. ABTA said while it is "a good step in the right direction" it will not be enough to "undo two years of damage to the overseas travel industry, caused as a direct result of government policies".

Low demand

In the aviation sector, the International Air Transport Association, or IATA, found the demand for international and domestic travel showed "significant momentum" in July compared with June.

However, it remained far below pre-pandemic levels.

"July results reflect people's eagerness to travel during the Northern Hemisphere summer. Domestic traffic was back to 85 percent of pre-crisis levels, but international demand has only recovered to just over a quarter of 2019 volumes," Willie Walsh, IATA's director general, said.

IATA blamed extensive government-imposed travel restrictions for hampering recovery in international markets.

"The problem is border control measures. A recovery in international travel needs governments to restore freedom to travel. At a minimum, vaccinated travelers should not face restrictions," Walsh said.

So, as international travel slowly picks back up, the road to recovery is set to be a bumpy one. Emerging from the pandemic, the sector will have to reevaluate how it caters to travelers.

"We need to rebuild customer's trust, as travelers' needs have changed," the WTTC said. "It is essential that the public and private sectors come together to enhance their preparedness to mitigate the impact of a crisis, better manage to effectively address a crisis, and enhance their responsiveness through strong policies to ensure a speedy recovery."

Experts say travelers will now be looking into factors such as safety and cleanliness when making travel decisions, in addition to destinations.

"A few months ago, people were emerging from their enforced lockdowns and mainly concerned about cleanliness, mask wearing and social distancing," Ainsworth-Wells said. "Now, this has shifted to more reassurance if people have been vaccinated and can prove it."

There are also predictions that people will start using travel agents again as they will want to be assured that their bookings will be protected if any rules or restrictions change.

"I think mass travel may be depressed for another six months or so, but I do think it will return. The world had gotten used to budget travel on low-cost airlines, and providing the airline operators can continue to fly and provide attractive prices," Ainsworth-Wells said.

The UN World Travel Organization believes that vaccination programs together with relaxed restrictions for vaccinated travelers and the use of digital tools could be the key to the gradual normalization of travel.

"Higher vaccination rates in Europe are also drawing back some foreign visitors, who may take advantage of the quieter (autumn) months to travel in Europe," Allard said. "The fall in foreign tourism and the availability of EU rescue funds for the countries hit hardest by the pandemic are leading some countries to make plans to upgrade their tourist sectors to attract higher-income visitors once the pandemic is over."

Meanwhile, the WTTC said: "At this time, with limited international travel allowed, consumers are traveling to familiar and trusted destinations. Domestic travel has grown over the past few months; however, we truly believe that as restrictions begin to ease, travelers will once again begin to explore the world."

It noted that the evidence suggests that in the long term "many travelers will look to travel to less-populated destinations, seeking to explore the great outdoors and rural areas".

The WTTC spokesperson said, "Consumers will also have different expectations in terms of health and hygiene standards, and contactless technologies will be a basic prerequisite for a safe travel experience, so travel and tourism businesses will have to adapt to these new trends and fast-track their digital transformation."

While the past 18 months have been turbulent for the sector, the pandemic has also provided an opportunity for destinations to rethink and improve their infrastructure for post-pandemic travelers.

"Some destinations which suffered with overtourism have now put in steps to improve the local environments. Barcelona, for example, shut down roads to get cars out of the center, which was more practical to do when there were fewer tourists, and Venice is talking about getting rid of cruise ships. So, during the pandemic the impact of overtourism was addressed," ABTA's Tipton said.