Infection rate in England coming down

The largest study yet carried out into the spread of novel coronavirus infection in England says the growth in cases may be showing signs of slowing down.

Scientists from Imperial College London took samples from 84,000 people across the country as recently as last weekend, and said they showed that the so-called R number of virus reproduction appeared to have gone down.

Infection levels remain high, with one in every 200 people infected, but the figures look more promising than was expected.

A previous report carried out in late August and early September estimated that the R number, the average number of people any infected person was likely to pass the infection on to, was 1.7.

However, based on samples taken between Sept 19 and 26, the university said the figure is now down to around 1.1. This calculation is not the same as the one from the government's official scientific advisory team, but does show that increasing levels of public concern and the so-called rule of six limit on socializing may be having an impact.

"There does appear to be a downturn in the rate of increase, the R number appears to have come down," Paul Elliott from the Imperial College London team told the BBC.

"Clearly nobody wants a full lockdown, but if we pay attention to public health messages on social distance, hand washing, face covering and testing and isolating, then I think we can turn the virus down."

Scientists at King's College London have said confusion and delirium should be added to the official list of symptoms of novel coronavirus, after they began to turn up among large numbers of elderly or frail patients. It is thought this is a sign of the virus's neurological impact.

"Older, frailer people are at greater risk from COVID-19 than those who are fitter, and our results show that delirium is a key symptom in this group," said Rose Penfold, an epidemiologist at King's College London.

On Wednesday, England's Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty warned "the direction of travel for both hospitals and intensive care is going in the wrong direction," adding that there had been a "significant uptick" in the number of novel coronavirus patients being admitted, particularly in parts of Northeast and Northwest England, and on Thursday new restrictions were introduced in the Liverpool City Region, Warrington, Hartlepool and Middlesbrough.

The government's Chief Scientific Advisor Patrick Vallance backed up Whitty's comments, saying "we don't have this under control at the moment" and adding "there is no cause for complacency".

Prime Minister Boris Johnson insisted the country would not be returning to national lockdown but said all efforts must be concentrated on "following the guidelines and depressing the virus". However, Thursday's newspapers carried images of his own father photographed in public without a mask.

As working from home leaves many cities largely deserted, London Mayor Sadiq Khan has said the capital's transport system needs a major bailout similar to the one already given to the country's railway network, to help it function.

In his capacity as chairman of Transport for London, Khan's office has to make an official submission to the government spending review, and he said more than 5.5 billion pounds ($7.1 billion) would be needed over the next 18 months to keep the system going.

In the Spanish capital Madrid, which has had one of the highest infection rates anywhere in Europe and twice the national average, new rules will restrict residents leaving the city except on essential business. "Madrid's health is Spain's health. Madrid is special," said Health Minister Salvador Illa.

However, local authorities argue that there is no legal basis for the ruling, which could end up being at the heart of a political battle.

Meanwhile in Germany, workers could soon have a legal right to work from home, the country's labor minister has told the Financial Times.

"We cannot stop the changes in the world of work, nor do we want to," said Hubertus Heil.

"The question is how we can turn technological progress, new business models and higher productivity into progress not only for a few, but for many people. How do we turn technological progress into social progress?"