Scientists say number of climate disasters could double in 13 years

Anyone who doubted the impact climate change is having on the environment only has to look at Australia and the bushfires that have scorched large parts of the country in recent months for proof that we have a problem.

Adding weight to the calls for urgent climate action are the findings of a new study, Impacts of Carbon Dioxide Emissions on Global Intense Hydrometeorological Disasters, published in the Climate, Disaster and Development Journal.

Focused on extreme flood and storm events over 46 years, the research directly connects the build-up of carbon emissions to the increase in the devastating floods and storms we are seeing today.

The study warns that the number of climate disasters could double in 13 years, and "severely damage the environment, socioeconomic progress, and welfare of millions of people worldwide". Its findings make a strong and urgent case for implementing climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.

Although the Jan 23 study focuses on just two impacts of climate-flooding and storms such as hurricanes and typhoons－it is one more "piece of evidence" showing just how serious climate change has become, the lead author of the study, Ramon Lopez, said.

"There is little time left to avoid even worse catastrophes for the ensuing decades than the ones that we are now predicting for the next decade," said Lopez, a professor at the University of Chile, in Santiago, who has spent much of his academic life examining the economic impact of climate change.

He said the time has now come to end the global political debate and promises of policy changes. "What we need now is real action, especially by the big polluters," Lopez said.

"Short of massive social pressure, governments are not going to do much more than make promises－and while social awareness is rising, effective pressures on politicians that we now observe are just not enough.

"Some leaders simply do not see the need for action, and others are just too much concerned about the short run and lack the courage" to implement the needed climate action measures, he said.

Don Clifton, with the School of Management at the University of South Australia, agrees. "I don't expect those in the current (Australian) government who deny the human link with global warming will change their minds," he said.

"For them it is not a matter of science; it's an ideological issue. No amount of scientific evidence will change this."

High costs

Lopez said the cost in terms of human lives, and quality of life, for the people who are and will be affected by flooding and storms will be high.

"The economic cost alone of relocating entire cities or building the necessary infrastructure to protect against flooding is huge," he said.

As an example, he cited Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans, in the United States, in 2005. "The cost of partially protecting the city against another Katrina has been $25 billion so far," he said.

Vinod Thomas, a former senior vice-president with the World Bank, who co-authored the study, said if carbon emissions continue to rise at the current rate "we can expect to see more intense storms and floods".

Thomas, who also worked for the Asian Development Bank and is now a visiting professor with the Asian Institute of Management in Manila in the Philippines, said: "It is quite obvious from the collapse of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 25)" in Madrid in December that policymakers "show no urgency to reverse climate change".

The study used climate data from 155 countries－taken from 1970 to 2016－and a statistical and econometric approach, rather than climate models, to assess the factors that have contributed to the increase in the frequency of intense flood and storm events.

"The findings show that in addition to socioeconomic factors, the continuous increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration during the past four decades is significantly correlated with the increase in the number of extreme flood and storm events," said Thomas.

"That means human actions have a decisive role in climate change. The results show that global climate conditions significantly affect the frequency of these disasters."

The results of the study suggest that if the CO2 level increases by 1 percent, floods and storms would increase by nearly 9 percent.

David Holmes, director of the Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub at Melbourne's Monash University, said the recent bushfires in Australia are "not just about cyclical drought, ...but about the fact that southern and inland areas of Australia are becoming much drier in a way that is overwhelming typical variability".

"In the last 15 years, Australia saw eight of its 10 warmest years on record. Climate scientists tell us that, with climate change, weather systems increasingly move poleward," he said.

"This means that storm tracks that once brought moisture from the Southern Ocean right up the east coast are not reaching as far, and inland and forested areas are becoming much drier."