Crash barriers not the only hurdle

Car of the future has a few minefields to get through

Driverless cars may sound so 21st century, but some industry experts reckon that hopes for them are unrealistic, and that the steering wheel will be around a lot longer yet.

In a report that IBM published recently, Automotive 2025: Industry Without Orders, only 8 percent of a survey group said they believed self-driving cars would be widely used by 2025. Nevertheless, 80 percent said they believed computer-assisted driving technologies such as self-parking or lane-change-assist technologies could be widely adopted.

For the survey, 175 executives from automotive OEMs, suppliers and other companies in 21 countries were interviewed.

It is likely that these respondents' pessimism about the imminent arrival of self-driving cars is fueled by, among other things: current road designs, signs, laws and regulations and the terms and conditions under which insurance policies are now framed.

Dong Yang, secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, says that in solving the equation of how to introduce self-driving cars, technology is the easiest part of the formula.

"Laws, customs and cultures connected with driving have evolved for more than a century, and it is an accepted fact that humans take total responsibility for any accidents.

"But when two self-driving cars collide, whose fault is it? One or both of the drivers? One or both of the cars? This poses a grave challenge to the status quo."

Another issue is whether those who enjoy driving are willing to forgo that pleasure, he says.

Even those sold on the idea of self-driving cars have to acknowledge that while traditional cars are put through huge numbers of tests in all kinds of conditions, tests on self-driving cars have been a lot less expansive and rigorous.

When Google was closely questioned recently about the performance of its driverless car, it acknowledged that in snow the car has certain problems.

Of course, snow is just one thing self-driving cars might need to find their way through.

In Britain, MPs are now finding their minds exercised on how to get the cars of the future to negotiate their way through legal minefields.

"Ministers have admitted that the current Highway Code and rules of the road are inadequate for the new generation of vehicles which pilot themselves," the Daily Mail said recently.

The government had already decided that a person in the driver's seat of such a car would need to wear a seatbelt and would be responsible for speeding fines or other penalties for other motoring infringements, the paper says.

Another barrier in the way of the cars of the future is their cost. In USA Today, Marco della Cava said: "If a technology proves too costly, complex or remotely unsafe, it isn't likely to make its way into production because the considerable investment won't be recouped."

However, Dong says self-driving cars will become a reality sooner or later.

"Twenty years ago we debated whether computers would interfere with driving, and that has been settled. We accept that computer-aided functions can help reduce the possibility of accidents and cut the numbers of deaths and injuries."

In China in recent years, about 80,000 people have been killed in car accidents annually, and most of these have been blamed on human error. The association estimates that in an ideal environment where all cars are self-driving, the number of accidents could be cut by 90 percent, and the number of casualties could be cut by 99 percent. Traffic efficiency could be improved 40 percent and fuel efficiency 30 percent, it says.

In the future, the most valuable component of a car will be its safety driving systems rather than its engine, Dong says.

Industry analysts say it should be consumers rather manufacturers who decide what functions should be added to the self-driving cars.

(China Daily Africa Weekly 01/30/2015 page15)