War's tragic cost is written in blood

To prevent a catastrophic conflict between powers, strategic misjudgments must be avoided

One hundred years ago World War I broke out. And in July, 120 years ago, the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895 broke out. In July, 77 years ago, Japan launched its full invasion of China. And in July, 61 years ago, the cease-fire agreement of the Korean War (1950-1953) was signed. People should reflect on the series of wars.

Since the 36th century BC there have been more than 14,600 wars, which have claimed more than 3 billion lives. And from the end of World War II to 1994 there were more than 200 military conflicts, which killed millions of people.

As the Crimea crisis has deteriorated there was widespread concern that the United States and Russia might end up in a military confrontation.

Considering the destructive consequences that would result from a war between two such military powers, there is only a very slim possibility that they would choose to engage in a head-to-head military clash. However, the possibility cannot be completely ruled out that a strategic misjudgment may spark a conflict between powers.

There is also the possibility that big powers may become embroiled in an armed conflict against their better judgment by binding their interests to other countries. For instance, the US has time and again declared that the US-Japan security pact applies to China's Diaoyu Islands. That means that should there be an armed conflict between China and Japan over the islands, the US would inevitably join if it is serious about its stance. A war pitting China against the US and Japan would inevitably spell disaster for the whole region.

Compared with the situation 120 years ago, both the international power structure and the power relations between China and Japan, as well as their respective security approaches, have experienced enormous changes. Today, China is no longer as weak as it was 120 years ago when it was bullied by a number of imperialist powers and had to offer concessions and beg for peace by paying compensation or ceding territory. Through implementing the Meiji Restoration and the strategy of "departing from Asia and integrating with Europe", Japan at that time approached or even surpassed the debilitated Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) in terms of its economic and military power. And this was one of the main reasons why Japan dared to wage war against the bigger China.

After three decades of reform and opening-up, China has witnessed a fast rise in both its economic strength and its military capabilities. It is no longer the relative weakling it was some 120 years ago. No country can afford to underestimate China's status and influence in the world today. China has not only attached more importance to its own national security, it is also pursuing common security with others.

Under its military alliance with the US and that country's "rebalancing" to the Asia-Pacific region, Japan has displayed an unprecedented aggressive military strategy, as shown by its accelerated efforts to pursue its military buildup and get rid of the limitations placed on the development of its Self-Defense Forces by its Constitution.

However, pacifism has not been subdued in Japan and has even been on the rise, prompting Shinzo Abe's hawkish government to have to give its strategic documents a "peaceful tinge". This also means it is not easy for the Japanese government to embark on a militaristic path again.

Despite its high-profile declaration that its security alliance with Japan is applicable to the Diaoyu Islands, the US' deepened economic links with China and their common interests mean it does not want a conflict between China and Japan. The US will surely work to stop Japan from going to war with China. It will try to persuade Tokyo not to go beyond the bottom line at the critical time.

Despite continuous global efforts for peace, the power struggles among countries, religious conflicts, racial strife and terrorist activities occurring throughout the world, if allowed to escalate, could result in conflicts or wars that cost lives and exhaust political and economic resources. All countries should adopt a positive security approach and make joint efforts to maintain world peace and promote common security and development.

The author is a professor and director of the International Security Research Center, affiliated to PLA International Relations University. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

(China Daily Africa Weekly 07/04/2014 page12)