Miners dig for a new global strategy

Weak commodity prices, shifting investment environment force Chinese firms to slow expansion

Chinese investors in overseas mining projects are stepping back and reconsidering their goals and strategies after encountering legal, financial and labor issues during their foreign expansion.

China's outbound investment in the mining industry fell 10.9 percent year-on-year to $3.14 billion during the first three quarters of 2013, according to the China Mining Association. The number of investments declined 8 percent to 103 cases.

There are many reasons for the declines, says Chang Xingguo, project director of the association's international minerals and finance department.

"Chinese companies (in the sector) are facing challenges, because commodity prices are declining and the overseas investment environment is changing," he says.

"After 20 years of development in the overseas mining sector, the phase of dramatic growth is over," Chang says.

Now, resources companies will have to base their overseas investments on rational evaluation. They'll also have to place greater emphasis on sustainable development in foreign countries.

Chinese companies need to be fully aware of policies in foreign countries and avoid investing blindly. For instance, in January, Uganda banned iron ore exports. Other countries on the continent are moving to restrict foreign investment, according to Chang.

In recent years, many members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have limited exports of unprocessed minerals to support the development of local downstream industries.

Likewise, African countries want foreign participants in the mining industry to invest more in local downstream processing or refining plants, which is forcing Chinese companies to reconsider the rate of return of many projects.

Another issue facing the mining industry is that overseas projects are often unregulated, a situation that's led to disputes between foreign investors and the local communities and governments.

"It is a warning sign that Chinese miners had conflicts with local workers and governments in Zambia and Ghana," says Chang. "Some large mining projects in foreign countries don't offer enough transparency and Chinese companies usually lack communication skills, which could cause misunderstanding."

In addition to different policies and laws, foreign countries often place great importance on environmental protection and community development, factors that also have to be considered by companies during actual operations abroad.

"The biggest problem with overseas investment is lack of foresight," Chang says. In some cases, the investment "goes against common sense and it will end in failure", or it's outside the investing company's area of expertise.

One example he cited was that of a Chinese construction company that invested in a copper mine in Afghanistan.

"At a time when China's overseas mining investment is slowing and many large mining companies face unexpected cost increases and a bleak profit outlook, it's irrational and risky for inexperienced, non-mining companies to invest in overseas mining projects," says Wang Jiahua, CMA executive vice-president. He says that these companies should learn from the failures of specialists in the sector.

Private capital

According to Wang, up to 80 percent of overseas mining investments have failed.

"I hope they are well prepared in terms of research and risk assessment of overseas mining markets before they take action," Wang says.

As many countries with abundant mineral resources move to restrict investment by China's state-owned enterprises, private-sector Chinese companies are gradually becoming the majority of overseas mining investors.

In the first three quarters, private-sector investment in the overseas mining sector reached $1.92 billion with 73 projects, while investment by China's SOEs stood at $1.22 billion with 30 projects, according to the association.

"China's private capital has become an important force in the international mining market," says Wang Yanguo, vice-chairman of the China International Chamber of Commerce for the Private Sector.

Last year, the top 500 Chinese private companies invested $16 billion in 730 overseas projects, accounting for one-fifth of China's total outward foreign direct investment, according to Wang.

"Private investment in the mining sector occurs in many forms, which has reduced the potential risks," he says.

Global private-sector investment is increasing and becoming a major competitor with China's SOEs in the international mining markets, says Mike Elliott, leader of the global mining and metals sector with global consulting firm Ernst & Young.

Although China's overseas mining investment has slowed, the nation will remain one of the biggest buyers in global markets because of growing demand.

According to E&Y, China was still the biggest buyer of mining and metals assets globally for the first nine months, accounting for 8 percent of all deals by value.

However, unlike the downturn of 2009 - when Chinese buyers dominated mining and metals M&A - there's increasing private capital interest in the sector, which makes it more difficult for Chinese investors, says Elliott.

Further, deal risks are growing, so Chinese buyers have to be more creative in structuring their deal assets and evaluating their risks.

Chang says that financial institutions and funds are set to play a bigger role in mining M&As.

Plus, after experiencing failures in overseas mining projects, Chinese companies will use more sophisticated investment strategies, he says.

Outbound mining investment services will mature as well, offering better information to prospective Chinese investors.

As for specific types of mines, Chang forecast that interest in precious metals such as gold and platinum will increase, while investment in iron and potash will wane.

dujuan@chinadaily.com.cn

(China Daily Africa Weekly 11/08/2013 page23)