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As nations haggle over CO2 cuts, measurement is tough
(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-11-09 15:36 SINGAPORE: Targets and trust. These are at the heart of a tougher new global climate pact possibly just weeks away. The bigger the pledged emissions cuts or reductions in growth in carbon dioxide pollution, the greater the need to prove nations meet those targets and curb the pace of climate change. And proof of emissions reductions over time will help unlock billions of dollars in climate funds for poor nations. The problem, though, is that it is not yet possible to independently monitor a country's greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) from burning fossil fuels or deforestation.
Rich nations, he said, weren't going to hand over possibly hundreds of billions of dollars to poorer nations to help green their economies purely on trust. Which is why measurement, reporting and auditing of nations' greenhouse gas emissions is a key focus of marathon UN climate talks. The world body hopes the negotiations will lead to agreement on a tougher climate pact from 2013 during a meeting in Copenhagen next month. Rich nations are under pressure from the developing world to sign up to emissions cuts of 25-40 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and funnel billions in aid and green technology to the poor. Big developing nations are also under pressure to curb the pace of their emissions growth. "If there's no objective system to check lines of success, people are going to claim more than they can deliver. It's natural," said Tans, of NOAA's Earth Systems Research Laboratory. Rich nations such as Australia and the United States have developed reliable reporting methods on energy use and fossil fuel emissions, said Pep Canadell of the Global Carbon Project. Accuracy for developing countries was often not as good. "You have huge variability. And of course the issue is let's check on some of the developing countries. That's where it gets the most difficult because the reporting is not that accurate," he said. NOAA runs a global network that tests air samples for a variety of greenhouse gases to build a picture of how their concentrations change over time. Carbon dioxide levels are approaching 390 parts per million (ppm) compared with about 280 ppm at the start of the Industrial Revolution. If CO2 rises to 450ppm, the UN climate panel says the planet is likely to warm by at least two degrees Celsius. Dozens of countries also send greenhouse gas measurement data to the World Meteorological Agency's World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases. Such measurements can give annual and seasonal pictures of carbon emissions. But scientists say we are at least a decade or two away from a monitoring system than can accurately reveal national and regional emissions from fossil fuels or from deforestation and other land use changes. A global network will also need to take into account the huge amount of carbon dioxide produced and absorbed naturally via so-called sources and sinks. Trees and oceans soak up CO2, while burning or rotting vegetation can release it. Winds distribute the gas around the globe, and how this occurs is still not fully understood and is only poorly simulated in complex computer models. |
