Slow baby population growth clue to slowdown in US

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(China Daily)
Updated: 2009-05-20 09:21

WASHINGTON: Did America's moms and dads see the meltdown coming before the economists?

Just before the earliest stages of the recession, there was a steep decline in the population growth of children less than a year old, newly released census figures show.

Experts have long known that with rising job cuts and home foreclosures, couples often decide the timing is not right to have children. But the mystery here is that the pregnancy falloff reflected in the government data began months before Wall Street's plunge last September.

The number of babies increased only 0.9 percent between July 2007 and July 2008, a sharp drop from the record-setting 2.7 percent growth for the preceding year. The numbers hint at the tantalizing notion that America's family planners outperformed its financial planners in predicting the rough economic times.

"It's a very good question," said Stephanie Ventura, a demographer for the National Center for Health Statistics, part of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It is too early to know the reasons for the drop-off, she said, until demographic breakdowns become available this year. Teen births have been driving recent increases.

Ventura said US couples, who on average have two children, might have instinctively known to slow down amid early signs of economic trouble.

"They might have wanted to hold back," she said.

There did not seem to be outwardly clear signs of trouble around the corner. During the months when these couples were conceiving babies, or were choosing not to conceive, the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the US stock market was still rising toward its peak above 14,000, unemployment was relatively flat at about 4.5 percent and consumer confidence was reasonably high.

On the other hand, housing prices were near their peak, a pressure on young families. And in hindsight, some banking failures later identified as early signs of the recession were occurring as early as summer 2007, when gasoline costs also began to rise.

"The economy does matter," said Mark Mather, an associate vice president at the nonprofit Population Research Bureau. "If prospects look worse for families, they're going to be very likely to have fewer kids."

Just ask Leah Rupp Smith of Jackson, Mississippi.

Married nearly a year, she and her husband, a seminary student juggling two part-time jobs, would like to have a baby. But as they watch the economy continue to deteriorate, they are less than enthusiastic about becoming parents right now.

"It would just be madness to have a child right now," said Smith, a 24-year-old.

Smith said she and her husband make about $60,000 per year, enough to make their mortgage payment on a one-bedroom condominium, go to the movies once a month and have friends over for dinner. But with a sick economy and child day-care costs running about $5,000 annually, she said it may be a few years before they become parents.

"If we had a baby," she said, "we'd be putting the baby in a bathtub or something."