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Health experts gauge flu outbreak
(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-05-03 16:50

MEXICO CITY -- As the number of swine flu cases in Mexico wanes and rises, experts are being forced to walk a public health tightrope -- if they push their message too far and the virus fizzles out, they could lose credibility. But if they back off and it suddenly surges, they will be blamed.

Health experts gauge flu outbreak
Commuters, wearing protective face masks to prevent infection from swine flu, ride in the subway in Mexico City, Saturday, May 2, 2009. [Agencies]


Mexico reported three new deaths from the A(H1N1) flu epidemic late Saturday from a virus that has killed 19 in people in Mexico, one in the US and is spreading across Asia and Europe.

Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova said there were 11 cases of people suspected to have died in Mexico from the virus in the last 24 hours. The alarming news came after the epidemic's toll in Mexico appeared to have been leveling off.

Just over a week into the outbreak, the virus largely remains an unpredictable mystery.

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New developments also are raising more questions, including an announcement by Canadian officials Saturday documenting the first case of the H1N1 human virus jumping from a person to pigs on a farm. The infected farmworker had recently returned from Mexico and has since recovered. None of the pigs died.

Right now, one of the biggest hurdles is a lack of information from Mexico. A team of international and Mexican virus sleuths is trying to piece together an epidemiological picture of who's dying and where transmission began, while also uncovering just how it's attacking people with severe illness. But details are emerging slowly.

Late Saturday, Mexico's confirmed A(H1N1) flu cases jumped by about 25 to 473, including the 19 deaths. A Mexican toddler also died in Texas days ago, for a worldwide total of 20.

Until more is known about the outbreak in Mexico, no one should be making any bold predictions, experts say.

"I think we need to hit the pause button, at least outside of Mexico," said Michael Osterholm, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Minnesota who has advised the US government on flu preparations.

"This is a flu virus acting like a flu virus and causing, at worst, mild to moderate influenza," he said. "We have no room for complacency here, but we have to have a proportional response. What are the risks at the immediate time?"

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