(Xinhua)
Updated: 2008-01-03 23:19

BERLIN -- The recent record oil price of 100 US dollar per barrel is likely to double in 10 years driven by the scarce oil reserves and market speculation, a German energy expert said Thursday.

Claudia Kemfert of German economic research institute DIW told newspaper Berliner Zeitung that the oil prices could double to 200 dollar per barrel within 10 years.

Related readings:  Crude oil prices to continue surging  Oil prices ease after hitting $100

"Oil reserves are becoming increasingly scarce, which will further drive up the prices," Kemfert said.

The German expert said the recent record oil price was largely attributed to market speculation, adding that the oil price could rise to 150 dollars per barrel in five years.

"The share of the oil price that is derived from speculation is around 20 percent," she said.

The expert said she does not expect an ease of oil prices in the coming weeks, considering the financial crisis in the United States and political turmoil in some oil producing countries like Algeria and Nigeria.

The oil price may continue to rise up to 105 dollars per barrel in the short term, she said.

However, Eugen Weinberg, a raw material expert of the German Commerzbank said he remains skeptical of a further rise of oil prices.

The market is "very optimistic" for all raw materials, including oil and gold, but "the market only want to see a three-digital number, which is like a magnet," Weinberg told Handelsblatt newspaper.

Now the price has a tendency to go down, he said.