Of the 19 seniors drafted that high, only three became All-Star caliber
players (16 percent). That compares with 41 percent (31 of 75) of Americans
picked in the top 10 who didn't attend college or didn't complete their
eligibility.
The results do suggest that the rule keeping high school players out of the
draft will increase the chances of elite prospects developing into stars. The
production of players who turned pro out of high school was very all-or-nothing:
for every LeBron James, there was a Kwame Brown.
Five of the 12 high schoolers taken in the top 10 became All-Star caliber
players, but another five made limited contributions at best. Of the top-10
picks who spent some time in college but did not complete their eligibility,
only 29 percent (18 of 63) had no more than a limited impact.
In addition to the Clippers, the Atlanta Hawks, Golden State Warriors, New
York Knicks, Portland Trail Blazers and Seattle SuperSonics also got little out
of their picks. The Blazers and Sonics can rectify that this season, drafting
1-2 with Greg Oden and Kevin Durant available.
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