NEW YORK - The best value in the first round of this week's NBA draft might come from a wing player picked in the top five who left college early. The worst value might be a senior big man selected late in the lottery.

That's what an analysis by The Associated Press of past NBA drafts suggests. An evaluation of the 10 first rounds from 1995-2004 revealed several trends:

The abundance of ¡ª and lack of production from ¡ª big men drafted wasn't a surprise to some NBA front office personnel. But changes in the NBA's playing style may shift that trend.

The dearth of quality post players in the league leaves teams willing to take a chance on a big man.

"If you're going to make a mistake, you make a mistake big," the Utah Jazz's director of player personnel, Walt Perrin, said of the prevailing philosophy.

Low-post players accounted for 117 of the 286 selections from 1995-04 who played in the NBA. Only 17 of them (15 percent) went on to make an All-Star team (or, for players drafted in 2003 and '04, came close to that level early in their careers).

Eighty-nine of those big men (76 percent) had at best a limited impact in the league.

In contrast, 21 percent of other draftees went on to become All-Star caliber players, with 57 percent making no more than a limited impact.

Further complicating matters is that bigger guys tend to develop slower, so teams often have a harder time predicting how effective they will be.

Just because a post player never becomes a star, though, doesn't mean he was a wasted pick.

"The way the NBA is today, most people are getting their scoring out of other positions," said Donnie Nelson, the Dallas Mavericks' president of basketball operations and general manager.

"They may not be a great scorer," Perrin said, "but they can still have legitimate NBA skills in rebounding and blocking shots."

Are teams as desperate for big men these days, anyway, with the increased reliance on small ball? With power forwards becoming more skilled and perimeter-oriented, Nelson said, there's less demand for traditional post players.

That was reflected in the last two drafts, when just 16 of the 57 draftees who played in the league were big men.

The prevalence of players turning pro early has left few college seniors whom NBA executives deem worthy of high picks. But even the few who were taken in the top 10 have less of an impact than their younger counterparts.

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