Op-Ed Contributors
Can America win by confronting China?
By Francis C W Fung (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2010-02-25 17:20
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If current American provocation is unchecked there may come a point that China will be forced to retaliate in action by discontinuing to subsidize our twin deficits. This reaction will most likely lead to an all out confrontation. The first to suffer will be American consumers who will need to pay higher prices for essential goods to maintain our living standard. Next will be American and Chinese businesses, because 70 % of imports from China are under joint venture management with foreign companies making more profit than that of Chinese business. It may not be fun to watch the domino effects of worldwide trade protectionism and stock markets crash, but it could happen like the 1929 world depression. When this does occur there is no telling who will be the bigger loser.
Luckily the world will recover from the next depression if it should occur despite our efforts to prevent it. The question is who will be more likely to recover from it fastest? America has never had a major calamity that took place in our home land other than the Civil War. China, however on the other hand, during the last Century, experienced the devastation of numerous imperial wars of aggression, the Japanese occupation, two major civil wars, the Cultural Revolution and the recent devastating Sichuan earthquake. She has showed remarkable resilience in recovering from all those calamities. In addition, as an ancient culture, she has shown continuous unity for a long uninterrupted history of five thousand years.
As a dynamic young nation, America does not have a deep rooted ancient civilization as binding force. China is a cultural state and not a political state. China is more centralized and cohesive as is demonstrated by her developing pattern over the last three decades and her fast recovery from the last global economic crisis. (See Martin Jacques, “When China Rules the World”, 2010). As the world’s manufacturing center, China certainly will be the first to have the get up and go to export consumer goods to the rest of the developing world. Remember in any depression, when the stock market has crashed, cash is king. Whereas America is currently heavily in debt, China has two trillion dollars of foreign currency reserve. Adding the 700 billion from Hong Kong, this will make 2.7 trillion. She and other cash rich nations in Asia will certainly recover much faster during this potential depression than America, after all they are targeted to rise already by most accounts.
History has ample documentations of the 1929 global depression. It is sufficient to conclude that at this time of crisis, caution is the best part of velour for both America and China not to tempt fate. The most advisable course of action is for America and China both to continue cooperation and reach Harmony Consensus. In a joint effort between the most powerful developed nation and the fastest growing developing country, America and China will both fulfill the manifested destination of greatness, bringing lasting peace and harmony to the world. Harmony is the most common value of human civilization and Harmony Renaissance is the next creative wave of energy mankind is waiting for to lead us to the next level of accomplishment beyond European Renaissance.
The author is the General Director of World Harmony Organization. The opinions expressed are his own.
