Op-Ed Contributors

Developing world should hold on to its advantage

By Ma Chao (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-12-18 07:53

Deliberations, oppositions and protests at the UN climate change conference have heated up Copenhagen even in the chilly month of December. Dramas have not come at a premium at Bella Center, the venue of the conference, as negotiators from 192 countries have slung mud and much more at each other.

Among all the attacks and counterattacks at the conference, meant to choose a path to cool down Mother Earth, three issues stand out: Kyoto Protocol, developed countries greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts, and financial and technological support to developing nations. Unfortunately, the negotiators have agreed on none of them.

The "Danish text" in the first week of the conference and the walkout by African countries' representatives on Monday have till now been the most dramatic developments, and both are related with the ploys of developed world to give the Kyoto Protocol a silent burial.

The protocol says 37 industrialized countries have committed to cut the emission of four GHGs (carbon dioxide or CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and sulfur hexafluoride) and two groups of gases (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons). It follows the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities", enshrined in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which means countries that have polluted more should bear greater responsibility of cleaning it. But the US, which is not a signatory to the protocol, and other industrialized countries don't want to do so, and hence are forcing the developing, especially the faster growing, nations to commit to binding emission cuts.

But historically, the industrialized countries have emitted most of the GHGs that have caused global warming. For example, from 1900 to 2004, the US emitted 341.8 billion tons of CO2, and European Union member states, 273.8 billion tons, both dwarfing 89.2 billion tons by China, which they accuse of being mainly responsible for creating the present mess. It is another matter that the industrialized countries, especially the US, still emit a lot more GHGs than the developing nations, including China, in per capita terms. Hence, asking the developing countries to accept mandatory targets is like inviting the poor to a feast after the rich have gorged almost everything and left just the crumbs and the cleaning to be done.

The developed countries are adamant on not committing to even a slightly higher emission cut. Even with just one day left, they refuse to accept any target unless China (and India) agree to do the same.

The chances of a resolution of the third contentious issue, financial and technological help from the developed to the developing countries, too, seems remote.

Li Yan, a senior Greenpeace official, says the developing countries should not be made to beg for funds and technology to fight global warming. On the contrary, it is the duty of the developed world to provide them; it is the debt they owe to humankind as a whole. Li says the developed countries should establish a long-term system to provide sustainable funds for the nations in need, rather than doling out some money in the short run and washing their hands of their responsibility.

But until now, the rich countries have only promised $10 billion a year, a fraction of the amount that is needed. Zou Ji, a professor of environmental science with the Renmin University of China, says that it would cost China an extra $30 billion just to cut its carbon intensity from 40 percent to 45 percent by 2020. Even if China does not need the help of the developed countries, the rest of the developing world does and, according to G77, that would amount to at least $150 billion a year.

The impasse almost throughout the conference reflects the lack of sincerity on the part of the rich countries, especially the US, to fight climate change. Good rhetoric notwithstanding, they have been reluctant to offer either sufficient emission cuts or adequate aid.

For some developed countries, China has become the favorite whipping boy even in their pseudo-fight against global warming. They even refuse to acknowledge the emission cuts Beijing announced just before the conference.

The Chinese government has vowed to cut the country's carbon intensity - emission per unit of GDP - by 40 to 45 percent by 2020, taking 2005 as the base year.

But there are people like William Chandler, a research scholar with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who have described China's target as "significant". There are people like Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Birol has said that China's pledge, which would eliminate 1 billion tons of projected emissions, would put it "at the forefront of the fight against climate change".

About 40 million people still live in absolute poverty in China. They are more vulnerable than others to climate change. Almost one-tenth of the country's land mass, including the most populous, prosperous and developed areas could be submerged by the rising sea if all the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets melt. Hence, China is more desperate than any other country to check rising temperatures. This is reality - and if this is reality the developed world should not expect its "China-card" stratagem to work.

The Copenhagen conference enters its last day today. And though the farce played out over the last 11 days has made the atmosphere gloomy and disappointing, we still hope the world leaders could finally seal a deal to save our planet. Expecting cooperation from the developed world is like hoping for the sky, but at least we can expect the developing nations not to let go of the chance to end the beginning of a deal this time - and turn the tables on their rich rivals.

(China Daily 12/18/2009 page9)