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Types of Risks in China’s Economic Transformation Period(No.191, 2017)


By Chen Daofu, Research Team on “Risk Prevention and Countermeasures in the Economic Transformation Period”, DRC

Research report No.191, 2017 (Total 5266) 2017-12-22

Abstract: China is experiencing a period with profound economic and social transformation changes. During this period, various kinds of risks, especially systematic risks, are easily to loom up. Economic risks refer to unfavorable changes in the economic performance beyond anticipation and are not adequately handled with relevant buffer mechanisms, thereby affecting the stability of and causing spillover effect to the economic system. Economic risks that deserve high attention include: overcapacity and inadequate investment, the real estate bubbles, and the financial risks of the real economy. Social risks include: the uneven distribution of income and wealth, social differentiation, the lack of vertical social mobility, population aging, the insufficient provision of public services and the inability to come to the grips with social governance. These issues have made it difficult for the government to cope with the current social conflicts and risks. Besides, there are also financial risks which include: financial sustainability and funding shortage in some provinces, ineffective fiscal performance of and conflicts between stakeholders under various government functional departments, rapid expansion of the volume of policy-related finance, continuous credit expansion with weak foundation of trust, asset bubbles and the atrophy and dissimilation of financial functions. External risks include: sluggish industrial development and market demand, the lack of high-caliber personnel, capital outflow and its impact over domestic development, influence of international market fluctuations over domestic performance, restructuring of international rules and the Thucydides’s trap.

Key words: economic transformation, types of risks, bubbles