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Macro Economy

Monthly Review on Macro Economic Performance(No. 2, 2017)


Issue No. 2, 2017 (Total 88)


In the first quarter of 2017, China's economy maintained a smooth performance. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, GDP growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point, and industrial added value growth rate increased by 0.8 percentage points. The growth rate of industrial electricity consumption and transport volume increased significantly, and the performance of industrial enterprises above designated size improved tangibly. Fixed asset investment growth rate increased by 1.1 percentage points over the previous year, of which private investment growth rate increased by 4.5 percentage points. In March, consumer growth rebounded, and export growth increased by a larger margin. The overheated development momentum of real estate market in first- and second-tier cities was brought under initial control. The fiscal revenue and expenditure continued to improve, the exchange rate of RMB against USD remained stable, and foreign exchange reserves continued to rise slightly. At the same time, it should be pointed out that “anti-globalization” drive and trade protectionism are rearing their ugly heads, geopolitical turmoil and new black swan events may still affect the recovery process of the global economy. The contradiction relating to China's economic structural imbalance has not yet been alleviated. The imbalanced recovery of real economy, the excessive leveraging by local authorities, and the accumulated financial debt risks and other challenges cannot be ignored. On the whole, the current economic growth is becoming more and more stable, but the foundation is still fragile. Against such a landscape, we need to focus on deepening the supply-side structural reform and enforce the reform in some key areas and major sectors, in order to effectively resolve the imbalance in finance, real estate and real economy, relieve debt and asset bubble risks, and create more favorable conditions to consolidate the foundation for economy to perform with a mid-to-high sustainable growth.