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Macro Economy

Monthly Review on Macro Economic Performance(No. 10 2016)


Issue No. 10, 2016 (Serial No. 86)


In November 2016, China’s economic operation became stable from a downward performance. The industrial added value increased by 0.1 percentage point month on month, remaining above 6% for 9 consecutive months. Industrial consumption and volume of goods transported kept increasing, year-on-year PPI increase soared to 3% from 1.2% in September, and profits of industrial enterprises above designated size continued to improve. The increased rate of fixed asset investment remained stable, and the cumulative growth rate of private investment continued to increase, leading to a recovery of market expectations. Consumption growth increased by a small margin compared to October. Exports achieved a positive growth for the first time since March. The price scissors between M1 and M2 continued to decrease. The overheated real estate market performance in first- and second-tier cities had been checked. It is predicted that the annual GDP growth rate will stand at about 6.7% and this target can be achieved. It should be noted that the uncertainty in external environment has increased. Facts show that RMB devaluation pressure has increased and capital outflow is expected to increase; the overheated performance of housing market in some cities has not been brought under control, and there is a significant risk of declining sales volume in the car market; and it is a daunting task to sustain a high level of investment for infrastructure construction. In general, China’s economy is experiencing a crucial transformation period from the previous high growth speed to a medium-to-high growth speed within an appropriate range. We need to stick to the general principle of seeking progress while keeping a stable economic performance, promote the supply-side reform, increase the aggregate demand in a moderate manner, strengthen the guiding effect of market expectations, improve macro control across the board, and prevent and control risks with effective measures so as to set a solid foundation for the economic growth to become leveling off.