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Analysis of China’s Foreign Trade Performance in the First Half of 2016 and Forecasts for the Whole Year(No.94, 2016)


By Zhao Fujun, Research Team on “Analysis on China’s Foreign Trade Performance”, Research Department of Foreign Economic Relations of DRC

Research Report No.94, 2016 (Total 4977)2016-07-22

Abstract: In order to have a timely and thorough understanding of China’s export performance as well as difficulties and problems facing foreign trade companies so as to provide objective evidence for policy adjustment, the research team on “Analysis on China’s Foreign Trade Performance” has conducted questionnaire surveys twice a year over the past few years. The present survey was made in May 2016. The team collected 584 valid questionnaires from foreign trade businesses. The survey findings show that export is facing increased downward pressure this year with merely 10% businesses seeing export growth. The overall export price continued falling and the majority of companies suffered declining export profit margins. The surveyed companies held fewer export orders compared to the same period of last year, and the proportion of companies holding mid-to-long-term orders accounted for a decreased percentage. Compared with the survey results of last autumn, the present survey results showed that export was gaining momentum, export prices, export profit margins and export orders had inched upward, and surveyed companies holding mid-to-long-term orders increased by a small margin. But overall speaking, it is expected that this year is going to witness a harsher export situation. The reduced demand from global market and the elevated labor costs have become main factors restraining export growth this year. Enterprises suggest that the government release new policies for maintaining steady foreign trade, improve export rebates, promote trade facilitation and adopt other relevant measures.

Key words: foreign trade momentum, questionnaire survey, analysis