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Outlook on China’s Next-decade (2015-2024) Economic Growth: Scaling Efficiency Heights


Outlook on China’s Next-decade (2015-2024) Economic Growth: Scaling Efficiency Heights

Liu Shijin

This book is the third part of outcomes by the research team on “China’s next-decade economic growth outlook”. Last year, the government policy-makers pointed out that China’s economic development had entered a “new normal”, and this conclusion has gained wide consensus. In May 2014, Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of CPC Central Committee suggested in his inspection tour to Henan province that the new normal for China’s economic development should be given adequate concern. Later at the APEC CEO Summit and the central meeting on economic work, Xi made systematic illustrations to the new normal from various angles. Numerous features of the new normal are demonstrated in real economic operation. Economic growth continues the falling trend, a growth rate of 7.4% marking the lowest for several years, but the growth momentum remains steady. Employment fares well and structural problems such as the difficulty for college students to land jobs are eased; corporate benefits and financial revenues have somewhat fallen, yet remain stable; income growth of citizens generally sync with economic growth and rural citizens’ income has grown faster; the “density” and wide coverage of haze weather have exposed people more to the challenge posed by environmental pressure, while energy consumption for per unit of output and carbon emission level have fallen remarkably; more financial and fiscal risks are revealed, but the bottom line of no overall or systematic risks is secured. More importantly, China’s economic structure is experiencing a historic transition and some long-expected transformations such as consumption exceeding investment, service sector overtaking industry, economic growth relying more on domestic demand and more productive factors. From the previous normal to the new normal, it is all necessary and natural for us to face more problems, conflicts and challenges than in other periods. Viewing from international experience, many economies confronted major problems right during this period of time and even got stuck in crisis. China’s economy managed to hold the ground and ensured the bottom line in last year and made pragmatic progress in structural transformation. This is really no easy job no matter in the case of China or in light of the whole world.

This book illustrates, in different chapters, the new trends and new features relating to China’s mid-to-long-term development, with a forecast for the next decade’s growth, an analysis of economic performance in 2015 and an introduction to relevant policy options for enhancing production factors in various fields.