2011-02-25 14:52

China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) in February may grow by 4.8 percent year-on-year, due to an unexpected larger fall in food prices, the Economic Information Daily reported Friday, citing analysts with the China International Capital Corporation Limited.

The analysts Peng Wensheng, Zhang Zhiwei and Sun Miaoling previously predicted that the CPI growth rate in February would be higher than the 4.9 percent rate in January. However, they revised their prediction when the Agricultural Produce Wholesale Price Index fell by 3.2 percent year-on-year in the 15 days since the end of the Spring Festival, higher than the average of 2.5 percent in the same time periods from 2006 to 2010.

The Index was compiled by the Ministry of Agriculture. China's Spring Festival, also known as the traditional Chinese New Year, lasted from Feb 2 to Feb 8 this year.

The Ministry of Commerce data also showed that agricultural produce dropped this month, the analysts said.

However, as price data during the holiday was not fully known to the public, it's hard to precisely predict the actual change in February, they said.

The CPI growth may peak in March at 5.1 percent and the overall growth rate of the year may be 4.5 percent, the analysts said. Drought and oil prices driven up by the tense situation in the Middle East are two main risks for this trend.

They said that an interest rates hike is a "high-probability event". It may occur in March or more likely in the second quarter.