The plane crash that claimed dozens of lives in Inner Mongolia on November 21, while catastrophic, is unlikely to affect the business prospects of China's feeder aviation market, analysts suggest.

"Although such a disastrous wreck occurred, it will not shake our faith in feeder line transportation,?Liu Gang, manager of China Eastern Airlines?Beijing branch, told China Business Weekly late last week.

"In fact, from our investigation, neither operational problems nor common mechanical flaws exist with our regional jetliner fleet.?

Fifty-five people, including six crew members and two locals on the ground, died after a 50-seat regional CRJ-200 jet crashed as it was taking off from Baotou, in North China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

The jet had been operated by China Eastern Airlines. The aircraft had been manufactured by Canada-based Bombardier Aerospace.

Even though China Eastern is confident in its fleet, it has grounded all of its Bombardier-built aircraft pending the investigation's outcome, Liu said.

"We can fly as normal, because the remainder of our Bombardier-built fleet is in fine condition. But, to prevent widespread "flying panic?among the public, and to ensure we are 100-per-cent safe, we have followed orders from aviation authorities to suspend all regional flights involving this model,?Liu stressed.

China Eastern still owns five Bombardier-built regional jetliners.

The carrier, which is based in Shanghai, said it will not deviate from its strategy of developing regional traffic.

"We once planned to buy more regional jetliners from other companies. Personally, I do not think the direction will be altered, despite the fatal accident,?Liu said.

He said the firm could seal a deal with Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer, which is the world's fourth-largest aircraft manufacturer.

Dong Nianqing, a professor with the Civil Aviation Management Institute of China, said, from a broader perspective, the fatal crash will not overshadow the development of China's feeder line traffic.

"The market is there. So, no matter what happens, the overall situation in the market will not be altered,?Dong said.

The General Administration of Civil Aviation of China (CAAC) had predicted, during the 10th Five-Year Plan period (2001-05), carriers in China would purchase a combined 110-140 regional jets.

Aircraft are categorized as regional jets if they have 50-110 seats and are capable of flying 600-1,200 kilometres.

Regional jet transport will become a new growth engine for the country's civil aviation industry, CAAC once predicted.

"The combination of feeder and trunk-line air services should be encouraged simultaneously, given the small passenger flows in many Chinese airports,?Liu Weimin, director of the Aviation Laws Research Centre with the Civil Aviation Management Institute of China, told China Business weekly.

"That is the reality in China. Therefore, short-haul jetliners can surely find their own market niche,?Liu added.

For China Eastern, revenues from regional transportation account for a small portion of the firm's overall business.

"It is not very profitable now, but we believe it is the next phase in our development to expand into those second- and third-tier cities,?Liu said.

Regional air traffic will bloom in the future, after more private investments and/or non-frills airlines enter the segment, Liu said.

Tragedy

Although the future may not be gloomy for feeder line transportation, the hard reality is most people are trying their best to avoid travelling on aircraft smaller than a Boeing 737 or Airbus A300 since the crash.

"That accident will surely overshadow, at least in the short run, China Eastern and Bombardier's business, no matter what turns out to be the final cause of the tragedy,?Dong said.

"Within such a safety-sensitive industry ... it is impossible for customers to ignore such a fatal accident. And they will make note of the wrecked plane's model, and the operator that owned the jet.?

As of noon last Friday, which was China Business Weekly's deadline, crash site investigators had not determined the cause of the accident.

Jeff Chen, a spokesman at Bombardier's Beijing office, said the the firm's technical experts, from Canada, were searching through the wreckage for clues as to what brought the plane down.

Chen said it was too early to say what long-term effect the crash might have on Bombardier, which is the world's third-largest civil aircraft maker.

Investigators will examine a range of issues, Chen said.

"Those issues include the possibility of pilot error, maintenance of the aircraft and the jet's design. We will not release, prematurely, any findings before the cockpit's recorders are decoded,?Chen said.

The cockpit's two recorders were recovered three days after the accident. They were transported to Beijing for analysis.

It will take some time to decode them, and they will likely help investigators make a final determination as to the cause of the crash, Chen added.

He chose not to comment when asked to what extent Bombardier's potential sales or local production plan had been affected by the accident.

"I prefer not to make any comment for the time being. I am very unwilling to make such hypothesis that the tragedy was triggered by quality or design flaws,?Chen stressed.

Whose fault?

Like it or not, Canada-based Bombardier must face facts, and shoulder any due responsibility.

That also applies to China Eastern.

Human error has been ruled out as the cause of the crash, one member of the investigation team reportedly told Xinhua News Agency.

Li Fenghua, China Eastern's general manager, last week ruled out several widely rumored possible causes of the crash: An irregular, early take-off, careless safety checks and operational error by a tired crew.

Despite such rebuttals, many people doubt the airline's managerial and operational soundness.

"From work finished so far, we suspect mechanical or design problems ... may have caused the accident,?Liu said.

Three carriers in China operate about a combined 20 CRJ-200 jetliners.

One of those planes, owned by Shanghai Airlines Co Ltd, experienced some technical problems last week. That left some people questioning Bombardier's safety and quality standards.

Ironically, Bombardier last week announced US-based Northwest Airlines had ordered 10 CRJ-200 regional jets.

The short-haul aircraft will be for Northwest's Airlink operation, and will be operated by Pinnacle Airlines, Bombardier said in a statement.

Bombardier, the world's leading manufacturer of regional jets, said Northwest has ordered, throughout the years, 139 of its CRJ-200 jets.

At the end of September, the CRJ programme had firm orders for 1,410 aircraft.

In China, however, Bombardier's business lags behind arch-rival Embraer, in terms of both sales and local production.

Embraer in 2002 hammered out an agreement with China Aviation Industry Corp II to jointly produce 30- to 50-seat turbofan regional jets.

(Business Weekly 11/30/2004 page1)