Taiwan leader Chen Shui-bian's flip-flopping policy cannot be reflected more clearly in his handling of the establishment of three direct links across the Taiwan Straits.

He pledged to open up the three links - trade, transport and postal services - in the early days of his first four-year term since May 2000.

Now when his "presidency" stretches into the second term, the realization of the three links remains a dream.

Chen recently said the island will agree to establish the three links as long as future transport routes between Taiwan and the mainland are taken as "cross-Straits routes," according to Taiwanese media reports.

But leading mainland researchers on Taiwan studies say his words may not match his actions, given his notorious double-dealing.

"Since he took power in 2000, Chen has been playing the three links issue as a political card to serve his selfish interests," says Cao Xiaoheng, director of the Institute of Taiwan Economics at the Tianjin-based Nankai University.

"He is possibly using the issue again as a sweetening but empty promise to woo votes in the forthcoming year-end legislative elections."

In fact, former Vice-Premier Qian Qichen proposed to define direct air and shipping links between the two sides of the Straits as "cross-Straits routes" for the first time as early as September 2002.

The wording seemingly contrasted with China's long-standing proposal to define cross-Straits transport links as "domestic routes."

The flexible move was believed to be part of Beijing's effort to remove a main stumbling block to jump-starting talks on the three links, which have been clogged up by the two sides being unable to come to a consensus on how to define future cross-Straits transport links.

Beijing insists the links should be regarded as "domestic transport routes," while Taipei strongly demands they be treated as "international routs."

Unfortunately, Taipei resolutely refused Beijing's suggestion and thus bilateral talks on the establishment of the three links have since stumbled.

Guo Zhenyuan, a senior researcher with the China Institute of International Studies, says Beijing has been holding a pragmatic and sincere attitude towards the realization of the three links.

"We hope the Taiwanese side can reciprocate the mainland's goodwill and kindness and take concrete steps to push for the establishment of the links at an early date," he says.

The researcher stresses that the root cause of the failure to realize the three links is Chen's splittist attempt to purse formal independence through the issue.

Unwilling to see the development of close cross-Straits exchanges, the Taiwan leader has tried every means to postpone the opening of the three links.

That's despite his vow in 2002 that the establishment of the links is "a road we must take."

Furthermore, Chen has been attempting to incorporate the issue of three links in his separatist proposition of "one country on each side (of the Taiwan Straits)."

He has also been insisting on the participation of foreign ships in cross-Straits direct links in a bid to internationalize the routes.

Beijing, however, stands firm on the long-cherished principle that the three cross-Straits links are internal affairs within one country.

"Cross-straits direct links are purely internal affairs of both sides of the Taiwan Straits and we will not agree to allow foreign shipping companies and airlines to engage in related business," the Taiwan Affairs Office once said.

"Foreign capital will be excluded from the cross-Straits transport market if these links are regarded as domestic routes."

In line with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, any coastal state can reserve for domestic firms the exclusive right to operate its coastal transport, trade and fishing industries.

Taipei has yet to scrap its decades-old ban on the three direct links despite growing calls from Taiwanese business and industrial leaders for an early establishment of the links.

By the end of May this year, the number of Taiwanese-funded projects on the mainland had reached 62,000, with contract investment of US$73 billion. Cross-Straits trade volume reached a record high of US$58.6 billion last year, with the mainland being Taiwan's biggest export market and largest source of trade surplus.

(China Daily 09/17/2004 page5)