4-stage plan for exchange rate reform suggested
( 2003-08-22 10:00) (China Daily HK edition)
A recent research report by Standard Chartered Bank suggests a four-stage gradual process that China could adopt in its exchange-rate reform to maintain domestic stability while easing the revaluation pressure on the renminbi.
The next six months will see the first stage of the reform during which specific measures to encourage more capital outflows would be adopted, such as allowing exporters retain some foreign currency earnings offshore and cutting the export tax rebate, the report said.
In addition, the authorities could further encourage foreign acquisitions by Chinese firms and make it easier for domestic Chinese households to move some of their savings offshore.
The options have also been suggested by some Chinese economists to ease the mounting appreciation pressure on the renminbi, or yuan, as the country's economy grows strongly and exports and foreign exchange reserves surge.
China's forex reserves rocketed to US$346.5 billion at the end of June, up 42.7 percent year-on-year, and outstanding forex savings reached US$90.5 billion by July.
The forex authorities have already announced more lenient policies to let domestic banks lend more forex to domestic enterprises, which will be encouraged to make more industrial investment overseas, an official with a State bank said.
In the second stage, China could, in around 12 months, try to widen the trading bank for the renminbi to between 3 and 5 percent versus the US dollar, the Standard Chartered report said.
And if the first two stages are implemented successfully, China may consider a re-pegging of the renminbi at a stronger rate over a number of years. And finally in the fourth stage, the currency will see free floating, which is likely to take place in five to 10 years if the economy is sound, the report predicted.
Presently, China keeps the renminbi in a narrow band of 8.2760 to 8.2800 per US dollar, which is widely viewed as actually a pegged rate.
The first try to widen the trading band for the yuan is only likely when the Chinese authorities are confident there will be no adverse impact on the domestic economy, the report said.
And though China would eventually revalue the yuan and liberalize the exchange regimen, there is no need for a significant appreciation immediately, in spite of international pressures.
"China should not be blamed for other countries' inability to boost demand. ... China's currency policy should not be decided overseas but should be made in China," the report said.
|.contact us |.about us|
|Copyright By chinadaily.com.cn. All rights reserved|