CHINA> National
|
CHINA> National
|
|
Related
Experts see a light at the end of economic tunnel
By Fu Jing, Si Tingting and Wang Bo (China Daly)
Updated: 2009-07-03 09:28 The global economy has bottomed out and there is already "light at the end of the tunnel," according to Fan Gang, chief fellow, China Centre of International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE), a leading think-tank. For the renowned economist, it was wrong on the part of his fellow peers to use terms like "unprecedented" or "severest in a century" for the economic crisis. "In fact, we (the world) have successfully avoided the happening of such long recession after 1929-33 financial crisis despite that some economies are not recovering as fast as expected," Fan told Hong Kong-based Phoenix TV on the eve of the Global Think Tank Summit in Beijing. Fan said he believes the US economy would not recover in the third quarter. "Things will not turn from bad to good so fast," he said. "I personally don't believe the world economy will shake off the impact of such a devastating financial crisis within several quarters."
The economist said most of the problems in the global economic and trade system have already manifested itself and in this sense the financial crisis has already bottomed out. "The water is not muddy again and that's the progress the international community has achieved till now," he said. Gerard Lyons chief economist and group head of Global Research, Standard Chartered Bank, told China Daily that he expects the US and UK economies to recover this autumn, Europe by the end of this year and Japan by early next year. Lyons, however warned that unemployment in most of these regions would increase despite the recession ending. Zhang Liqun, senior research fellow at the Development Research Center affiliated to the State Council, feels that since the global economic recovery is still not on a firm ground, there are chances that it may slip into a more severe and protracted recession. "There are no clear signs that some industries can take the lead in pepping up the ailing economy, while on the financial front, countries is still grappling with problems, Zhang said on the sidelines of the summit. "Despite the massive liquidity infusions, the toxic asset problem still persists," he said. Under such an unclear scenario, it is still too early to conclude that the economy has turned the corner, he said.
"Britain and US will eventually reinvent themselves and adapt to changes, but that will take some years as they have to pay off their debts. I think emerging economies will lead the recovery, but these countries have to create the right environment in which their economy and their people can succeed and grow." Fan said the current financial crisis took roots in the core economic world and no economy could dodge the sweeping blow. But in the long term, emerging economies have better growth momentum to catch up with the developed world, he said. "China's economy plunged as a result of the global demand slump, which is a major adjustment due to the burst of the huge bubble created after the dollar was de-pegged from gold in the 1970s," said Fan. As the economy begins to stabilize, global demand will also recover and put China's exports back on track by the end of the year, Fan said. He, however, warned that foreign trade might not achieve the annual growth rate of 30- 40 percent it achieved in the past few years. |
