Now that corporate America's pension promises will be thrust into the
spotlight by new regulations, investors should watch for accounting tricks
companies may use to reduce their benefit obligations.
New rules from U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board will force companies
to report the status of their pensions and other post-retirement employee
benefits ! as an asset or, for most, a liability if they are underfunded ! on
their balance sheets rather than have them buried in a footnote to the financial
statements.
That means huge liabilities could suddenly drop like a bomb onto balance
sheets, putting any deficits squarely in the public view and possibly throwing
some lending agreements into question because it may lead to sharp drops in
corporate net worth.
Figuring out if any maneuvering is going on won't be an easy task. Investors
will have to closely watch companies' assumptions for such things as health care
and wage inflation that are used to determine the costs of defined benefit
plans, which promise retirees a monthly check and often medical coverage.
For years, companies have gotten off easy by agreeing to such benefits
without having to immediately set aside ample assets to cover them. Standard
& Poor's estimates that the companies in its benchmark index offering such
benefits held assets worth only $1.409 trillion in 2005 to cover $1.870 trillion
in pension and other retiree-benefit obligations, resulting in a record deficit
of $461 billion.
"In the past, analysts, auditors and investors looked at numbers differently
if they were in the footnotes vs. the financial statements," said Lynn Turner, a
former chief accountant with the Securities and Exchange Commission who is now
managing director at the independent research firm Glass, Lewis & Co. "But
when you move something onto the balance sheet, suddenly people want to study it
more."
Which is why so many in corporate America protested the FASB's moves, which
were announced on Friday. The U.S. accounting rulemaker also intends to
eventually revamp how pension funding levels flow into earnings.
Besides just the balance sheet effect of the new rule changes, this could
also jeopardize lending agreements should credit ratings be lowered due to the
additional liabilities.
Once the rule changes seemed likely, companies fought hard to get the FASB to
allow them to measure benefit obligations based on what employees had already
earned as opposed to what they could make in the years ahead.
The difference between the two is huge. In 2005, the pension deficit based on
the accumulated benefit obligation was about $10 billion for 100 large U.S.
public companies with pensions, while it was $96 billion when the projected
obligation is used, according to a study by actuarial consultants Milliman Inc.
The FASB didn't relent, so bigger numbers are likely to show up on balance
sheets for public companies with fiscal years starting after Dec. 15. For some
companies, that might give them more incentive to end their pension programs ! a
trend seen in corporate America in recent years as pension costs have soared.
Other companies might instead try to trim the size of such obligations. That
could be done by capping what they are willing to shell out for such things as
retiree health care or shifting some of the financial burden to their workers.
But they could also reduce such obligations by low-balling some of the
assumptions used to calculate the amounts owed, notes Jack Ciesielski, author of
the popular industry newsletter The Analyst's Accounting Observer.
For instance, in determining the projected benefit obligation, companies use
a rate of expected future salary increases for employees entitled to the pension
benefits. By tinkering even just a little with that ! which can be largely based
on management's view of wage growth ! a company could significantly lower the
liability.
Investors can see that information in the pension footnote found in the
annual report, where companies give the rate of compensation increase for the
last few years. It should raise a red flag if that rate differs from the trend
seen in the past or from what competitors show.
Companies also have discretion over health care cost trend rates, which they
have been underestimating for years. The median estimated long-term rate of
health care inflation was 5 percent every year since 2001 for the 245 companies
in the S&P 500 that disclosed such information. But those costs have been
rising about 10 percent a year, Ciesielski said.
While missing such targets help lower benefit obligations at one point in
time, companies could ultimately have to pay for such mistakes.
For instance, UPS Inc. forecast a health care cost trend rate of 8.5 percent
for 2005 and expects to hit a steady rate of 5 percent by 2009. Should the
Atlanta-based company be wrong with such predictions, every one-percent gain in
its assumed health care cost trend rates could cost it $88 million in
post-retirement benefit obligations, according to securities filings.
Shifting such benefit obligations to the balance sheet is better accounting !
in terms of practice. But that doesn't mean all companies are really accounting
better.