The central bank said on Friday that China's economic recovery is "likely to strengthen" this year while it will face intensifying inflationary pressures.
Policymakers, however, may not keep policies "over-tight", analysts said.
The country will continue to adopt a moderately relaxed monetary policy and active fiscal policy, while making them more targeted and flexible, the People's Bank of China said in a report analyzing the economy in the fourth quarter of 2009.
China's GDP expanded 8.7 percent year-on-year in 2009, but the fourth quarter saw a fast pace of 10.7 percent, and economists expect it to gain further momentum in the first quarter of this year.
Meanwhile, ample liquidity in the financial system and the rising inflationary menace have increased expectations that policymakers will tighten policies soon. The stock market has dropped recently as investors remain uncertain over how tight the policy will be.
The central bank said inflation may intensify this year due to rising international commodity prices, still ample domestic money growth, rising demand and possible domestic adjustments to utility and resource prices.
China's consumer price index (CPI), a major gauge of inflation, rose 1.9 percent in December from 0.6 percent in November. Some analysts have forecast that the country's inflation could pick up to high levels, such as 5 or even 8 percent in certain months, but they still maintain the government can keep it at a satisfactory level of around 4 percent.
"Despite the recent pickup in CPI, we see inflation remaining moderate and within the government's target in 2010, at 3 to 4 percent," said Wang Tao, chief of China economic research at UBS Securities.
She forecast China's GDP may expand 9 percent this year and it could be adjusted upward if export growth and lending are unexpectedly strong this year. But "with the ongoing policy tightening, growth in the second half is expected to decelerate to about 8.5 percent year-on-year", she said.
![]() Sorry, the page you requested was not found.Please check the URL for proper spelling and capitalization. If you're having trouble locating a destination on Chinadaily.com.cn, try visiting the Chinadaily home pageCopyright 1995 -
. All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
![]() ![]() |
|