HK Chamber of Commerce head discusses tensions, trade

Aron Harilela, chairman of the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce, gave an exclusive interview to China Daily and expressed his views on affairs relating to Hong Kong on Tuesday. The following are excerpts.

Background: The HKGCC, established in 1861, is the oldest business organization in Hong Kong. Its views represent one-third of the workforce in Hong Kong, and over half of the blue-chip companies on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the wider business community.

"I think the rioters are there to cause trouble. They're there to create violence. And no political solution would satisfy them. However there is a majority there — after law and order is maintained. Right now the most important thing is to maintain law and order, and to start a dialogue with a political solution."

On escalating violence

"I think things have changed in Hong Kong since the airport incidents — on Aug 13. I think a lot of people in Hong Kong want to separate themselves from the violence that happened. I mean what happened at the airport must be condemned. It went absolutely — it was just horrible for Hong Kong. You saw tourists who were fearing for their lives. You saw police who were beaten. You saw innocent bystanders whose lives were put in danger. So I think that must be condemned. But I also think that was the turnaround, and now a lot of the majority protesters do not want to be associated with the violent minority. And therefore we must make the division, a gap — some air, between the violence and the real questions."

On airport incident

"I think it's terrible, if you look at GDP figures actually for the second quarter of 2019, we were at 0.6 percent. If you look at the forecast for the whole year we're 0 to 1 percent. And we could even get worse. We could even get worse because we do not know how long this will last. The longer it lasts the worse the GDP figures will be. Small and medium-sized enterprises — my big fear — my biggest fear is for small and medium-sized enterprises. Because they rely on cash flow, and if their cash flow is dried up, then their business will have to close down. Their livelihoods are at stake, and if the disruption in Hong Kong is putting people's livelihoods at stake — then we're in a bad position. It will also increase unemployment. And if unemployment is increased to such a level where it's difficult to actually pick up from there, then it's the worst situation that Hong Kong could face. Because Hong Kong has been very lucky with essentially a 0 percent unemployment rate."

On the violence's impact

"Quite terrible. I'm in the hotel business. Our occupancy is less than half. Our room rate is less than 33 percent of what it should be right now. So businesses are suffering. Instability. People — after they saw all these events in Hong Kong, they don't want to travel to Hong Kong. They're cancelling their flights. They're cancelling their visas. They're cancelling their holidays. And as a result retail and tourism is suffering first. But all industries will suffer as a result."

On foreign investors

"Foreign investors — they're cancelling a lot of their trips. A lot of people are — I mean I have a meeting tomorrow with local investors who are thinking about moving their money out of Hong Kong. But I personally believe Hong Kong will become strong very quickly after these events end. Because we have great fundamentals. The fundamentals for me are, common law, independence of the judiciary, free flow of information, people and capital."

"I think a lot of people are trying not to make investments into Hong Kong. But I think they will try to make them again once events finish. I think Hong Kong will bounce back quickly."

"As for when Hong Kong will bounce back, it depends when the protests end. But after the protests we hope within 6 to 18 months we should see some resumption. Certainly next year. Not this year."

On the cause

"So there are a lot of issues in Hong Kong. I think it's not only about the extradition bill, it's about the quality of life, the size of the apartments, the lack of public housing. These all play a part in the frustration we see manifest out on the streets. So there are a lot of ways to address this. Yes, it all flared up because of this one bill, but I think there are a range of issues. I would say that public housing is certainly one. The size of apartments is two. The quality of life is three. And we have to I guess, at this time, look to our political system, because we've had trouble in the last 22 years. Quite a lot of trouble. Maybe there's something in our political system that needs a little bit of fixing."

On the future

"The most important thing right now is to maintain law and order, and then to start a dialogue. As a chamber we will be happy to be a platform to help that dialogue and communication."

"We have a very small police force. I think we only have about 30,000 police officers. They have been on the street for 11 weeks. They're not rioters, this is not their job from Monday to Saturday, really not their job. So I am sure on both sides they must be very, very tired."

On bullying police

"This is unacceptable, unacceptable. From any side, from any country, from any city, from any of side of the political or law enforcement nation. Cyber-bullying for family or people involved in anything is absolutely unacceptable. It goes beyond what is a decent society with law and order. If you are putting the family, the children, and the wife or the husband of the police forces at risk, that's absolutely unacceptable. And I think most of Hong Kong will agree with that. I'll be very surprised, I'm sure that tempers have… people have a lot of anger and they… that they shouldn't. And I strongly believe that Hong Kong is a law-abiding city, I strongly believe most people here are very peaceful and they would not condone these bullies."

On China-US trade

"I think we know President Trump wants to destabilize the business set in China, that we know. Destabilize some of the business in China. We see that directly from the tariffs. The tariffs are to destabilize the industry in China. And I'm sure some of the events in Hong Kong also work in favor of this destabilization. However, I think we cannot be blind to realize that frustrations out on the streets are real and they have to be addressed."