To avoid a guess, learn a key fact

Sherlock Holmes said, "I never guess. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts."

That definitely applies to some bridge players. They make an assumption about the lie of the cards that proves to be inaccurate. Then they complain they were unlucky, when they could have played differently to uncover the critical fact.

How does that apply in this deal? West leads the spade king against three no-trump.

Note South's opening bid. Although all week we have been worrying about stoppers in unbid suits, here South must open with one no-trump. If he were to bid one club, he would have no rebid that would accurately describe his hand. It is responder's job to cover opener's weak suit.

South starts with eight top tricks: one spade, three hearts and four diamonds. He needs one club trick to get home, but should he lead low to his jack or to his king?

The original declarer applied the Rule of Seven: When they lead a suit in which you have only the ace, add up the number of cards your side has in that suit, subtract from seven and hold up for that number of rounds. So, with six combined spades, declarer ducked one spade and took the second. Then he ran the diamonds before playing a club and - of course - misguessing to go down.