ABUJA, Nigeria - OPEC ministers agreed Thursday to hold oil production
unchanged for now but set the stage for a cutback of half a million barrels a
day in February. Oil rose above $62 a barrel in response.
 Ammuna Lawan Ali, Nigerian Governor for OPEC, arrives at the
venue of the OPEC meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2006.
OPEC nations weighed a report published Wednesday suggesting no new output
cuts were needed to keep oil prices stable. But some members remained
unconvinced on the eve of their year-end meeting.[AP]
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The decision - in a closed meeting of the 11-nation Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries - was confirmed by OPEC President Edmund Daukoru, who is
also oil minister of Nigeria, along with ministers from other member nations.
With world inventories high but moving downward and the coldest days of the
Northern Hemisphere winter still ahead, the move was a compromise - meant to
keep markets and consumers calm at least in the short term. It also left a
possible window for the organization to retrench and decide not to cut in
February should demand spike, moving prices sharply upward.
"Over $60, OPEC is nervous about doing anything," said energy analyst John
Hall of John Hall Associates, suggesting that a cutback in two months depended
on market conditions.
But Qatar's Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah denied this, saying
the cut will go ahead no matter what happens with oil price movements between
now and then.
Benchmark crude futures moved higher after the OPEC decision, with January
Brent on London's ICE futures exchange trading up 90 cents at $62.23 a barrel,
and light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange up 81 cents at $62.18
a barrel in electronic trading.
Any new cut will come on the heels of a 1.2 million barrel-a-day reduction
agreed to in October that has not yet been fully implemented. The International
Energy Agency - the developing world's energy watchdog - says OPEC now produces
about 780,000 barrels less than before the October decision to cut back.
Sentiment for paring production within OPEC is driven by concerns over
ballooning world inventories, a weak dollar and higher production from
nonmembers.
A skittish market has also sent shudders through OPEC ranks. Oil prices
peaked at $78.40 a barrel in July, then plummeted toward $55 last month before
rising to present levels in the low $60s - just above the red line for most
member nations.
Even moderate Saudi Arabia, whose voice carries weight proportionate to its
status as OPEC's top producer, had initially indicated it might be leaning
toward endorsing a further cutback at the Thursday meeting, with its oil
minister Ali Naimi speaking of the need to slash 100 million barrels from
bulging world inventories.
But ahead of the meeting, he expressed less sentiment for an immediate
reduction.
Citing a report from the IEA, Naimi said "about 50 million barrels" had been
removed from world stockpiles, so "the market is much better."
The agency said total OPEC daily output in November was 28.9 million barrels.
With the exclusion of Iraq, which is exempt from quotas, the group produced 27.1
million barrels a day.
Daukoru had also appeared to retrench on the need to trim output immediately,
saying OPEC needed first to "look at the facts" before making a decision.
But price hawks Iran, Algeria and Venezuela had remained firm on the need for
reductions now.
"Whatever the size, we need one" immediately, said Algeria's oil minister,
Chakib Khelil, alluding to the other possibility being floated before the
meeting began - a decision not to wait until February but to cut production by a
daily 300,000 barrels as soon as possible.
Iran - second only to the Saudis in OPEC output - also called for immediate
cutbacks, along with Venezuela.
Despite his relatively upbeat comments earlier, Daukoru, in an address to the
meeting, suggested cutbacks would be necessary - if not now, later. He described
the recent recovery in prices as "hesitant" and vulnerable to "continuing
oversupply, high inventories (and) a mild winter."
A major factor at the meeting is the level of oil inventories in the U.S. and
other large consuming nations. Because of lower than expected refinery
operations, crude oil inventories stand at a 12-year high for this time of year,
at near 340 million barrels.
Still the U.S. Energy Department released data Wednesday showing a 4.3
million barrel drop in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, while the
International Energy Agency said in its monthly report that stockpiles of crude
in industrialized nations fell by 40 million barrels in October.