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Macro Economy

Monthly Review on Macro-Economic Performance (No.8, 2018)


Issue No.8, 2018 (Total 104) 2018-10-30

In September, the downward pressure on China’s economy increased to some extent. The GDP growth in the third quarter was 6.5%, slightly below the growth range of 6.7%-6.9% for 12 consecutive quarters. The industrial growth increased by 5.8% year on year, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and it was for the first time lower than 6% since March 2016. The total demand growth slightly improved, the nominal growth of consumption in September continued to pick up to a small extent, export growth increased from August and investment registered growth month on month in the first three quarters. However, under the influence of negative market expectations, sluggish income growth and some other factors, the foundation for consumption growth was unstable, investment growth in real estate and manufacturing sectors might decline. As China-US trade frictions escalate, it is most possible for export growth to decline, and the total demand will be put under a quite obvious downward pressure. Viewing from a comprehensive perspective, affected by multiple factors both from home and abroad, China’s economic operation will face more difficulties and hard issues, and the downward trend of economic growth would continue for a period of time. In face of the above-mentioned facts, we need to adhere to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, take effective measures in response to the combined effects of short-term downward pressure and external negative factors, so as to stabilize market expectations and enhance market confidence. The coordination of macro policies should be improved, fiscal, monetary, financial and relevant measures need to be taken to strive to moderate the downward trend of investment and demand, and relevant risks should be properly disposed. We need to focus on stabilizing the industrial chain, and deal with the impact spawned by trade dispute effectively. It is necessary to accelerate the reform of the market-oriented allocation of factors, intensify efforts in lowering cost and addressing weak spots. Moreover, we need to work hard to improve the market and policy environment for enterprises, stimulate the vitality of market entities and constantly enhance the market’s capacity and efficiency in allocating resources.