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Macro Economy

Monthly Review on Macro-Economic Performance (No.7, 2018)


Issue No.7, 2018 (Total 103) 2018-9-30

In August, the economy realized steady development and grew at moderate pace and the supply-side reform remained relatively stable. The industrial growth grew by 6.1% year on year, an increase of 0.1 percentage point month on month. The growth of industrial electricity consumption increased tangibly. Profits of the industrial enterprises above designated size kept on growing. Credit growth picked up slightly and the efforts continued to be made to press ahead de-leveraging. At the same time, the downward pressure on the demand side remained strong. Although the real estate investment, manufacturing investment, private investment, and other market-led investment grew stably, the growth of infrastructure investment continued to decrease significantly, dragging down the investment growth. Household consumption growth was also facing pressure to make adjustment due to weakened wealth effect and the reduced spending on housing purchase. And with the escalated China-US trade frictions, the export growth declined slightly. The overall price performance was moderate, the CPI growth inched up, and the PPI growth continued to drop. In light of the general picture, while the economic operation maintained stable across the board, the sagging demand caused by multiple factors remained unchanged. The economic environment in the fourth quarter, especially in the next year, would become more complex. Relevant arrangements made at the Political Bureau meeting of the CPC Central Committee held at the end of July should be further implemented effectively. We need to adhere to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, strive to improve the coordination of macro policies, and properly dispose related risks. We need to take fiscal, monetary, financial and relevant measures to moderate the downward trend of investment and demand in a gradual manner. We need to accelerate the reform of the property rights system and the market-oriented allocation of factors, intensify the efforts to lower cost and shore up weak spots, work hard to improve the business environment for enterprises, guide and flesh out the market sentiments, stimulate the vitality of all kinds of market entities, and constantly improve the capacity and efficiency of the market in allocating resources. More targeted policies and measure need to be adopted, so as to increase support for the three critical battles against potential risks, poverty and pollution and actively promote the high-quality economic development.