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Evaluation on the Adoption of Selective Two-Child Policy and Suggestions on Future Population Policies (No 124, 2015)


By Zhang Bingzi &Wang Shufang, Research Team on "Birth Policy under Low Fertility Rate", Research Department of Social Development, DRC

Research Report No 124, 2015 (Total 4809)


Over one year after the selective two-child policy was promulgated, the number of applicants only took up 12 per cent of the target group; and given the large disparity between application and practical birth, the selective two-child policy for only-child parents has merely a little effect on improving the fertility rate. This scenario occurred mainly due to these reasons: On one hand, the restraining role played by family planning policy on unplanned births has been weakened, and response brought by relaxed policies is limited; on the other, the public has changed their birth willingness to a large extent. Now we should adopt as soon as possible a second-child policy for all parents, which though will bring forth only limited birth accumulation and structural impact upon education and medical care. The public service system of the government is able to face up to this challenge. Meanwhile, the government should increase input into public childcare service and pay attention to the influence of birth policy adjustments upon women relating to both employment opportunities and their rights and interests in the family. The future goal of China's family planning policy is to keep the fertility rate at the replacement level. Considering that China's neighboring countries with developed economy have generally fallen into the low-fertility-rate trap, we should make related policies and at the same time appropriately handle the long-overdue issues relating to family planning policy.