When social activists talk about peaceful demonstrations and non-violent protests now, we will no longer believe their words or overlook their actions. From the color revolutions and Arab Spring to political protests in Thailand and the Sunflower movement in Taiwan - all these protests have become violent. They resulted in aggressive attacks on governments and the law and order.

Most of the movements wanted to achieve regime change from the very beginning - probably with the exception of Sunflower Movement in Taiwan. Although not all the protesters had revolutionary ambitions, the core groups were revolutionaries. They were unquestionably not social activists simply wanting the government to address specific grievances.

The Taiwan case may be the exception. The real purpose of the student-led movement in Taiwan was to mobilize support for the leader of a faction of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). It succeeded in installing the leader (for whom the student leaders used to work), as the new chairwoman of the party. This was done without any opposition from within the party.

Despite violent protests when taking over offices of the Executive Yuan, the movement subsequently became non-violent. It then ended without developing into an overt political campaign against the Kuomintang government. It clearly achieved its aim of forcing other contestants for the top post of the opposition party to withdraw. So the Sunflower Movement had a solitary purpose. But its tactics nevertheless revealed a malicious nature. The staging of sit-ins, demonstrations and social disruption settled internal opposition party infighting, and was ultimately to test tactics for future elections.

The disclosure of the recorded minutes of a meeting involving the Civic Party with representatives from Hong Kong 2020, the Hong Kong Federation of Students, Scholarism, other political groups and US officials, also revealed the malicious intent of these groups in Hong Kong. They aim to create discord in society and hostility towards the government. The "Occupy Central" movement and radical activities of student organizations over the past few months no longer respect the tradition of peaceful protest in Hong Kong.

For reasons not fully clear, moderate social movements have turned into aggressive political struggles. The explicit aim of these is apparently to overturn the government of Leung Chun-ying - to carry out regime change. These groups in Hong Kong have been coached by the Taiwan experts who they hired from the Sunflower Movement and from the DPP. This was to learn how to topple the government of Hong Kong. The decision of the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) took from them the excuse that they were simply concerned about methods for achieving political reform in Hong Kong. They plainly have a more sinister agenda. After the decision by the NPCSC, they responded by aggressively issuing unacceptable demands to the SAR and central governments. In the past few days, demonstrations which were meant to be peaceful have shamelessly turned into violent confrontation. They are really an all-out attack on the SAR government and the social order of Hong Kong. The call for a massive strike and occupation of the government headquarters and Central is a clear indication of this.

But for what purpose; the resignation of the Chief Executive, the chief secretary for administration, and two other leading officials in charge of the political reform consultation, together with the repeal of the NPCSC decision? The core group of "Occupy" organizers has now placed themselves above the SAR and central governments. The aim is to escalate the protests and bring both governments to their knees. Another aim is to encourage the local police to crack down hard on the protests. This is because the organizers want to shame the two governments. This could also pave the way for future regime change. The scenario would serve the objectives of the Civic Party's meeting (with advice from US officials). They ultimately want to make Hong Kong people hate the government.

The significant thing will be whether the SAR and central governments react positively or negatively to these protests. If they react the wrong way they will lose and the "revolutionaries" and their US advisers will win. But this will not bring about regime change - only permanent chaos and confrontation. The US will benefit as it could halt the continuing rise of China. The "revolutionaries" would be given asylum in the US and rewarded like other Chinese dissidents. Many have foreign passports and other things to fall back on. They could just leave Hong Kong. Hong Kong will definitely suffer, the mainland less so. This is because affairs in Hong Kong currently have a lesser impact on the mainland.

The author is director of Public Policy Research Institute and head of China Business Centre at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.

(HK Edition 10/01/2014 page7)